Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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916 FXUS66 KMTR 162007 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 107 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet weather continues with a persistent marine layer through the weekend. Calm and cloudy mornings will transition to breezy and clear afternoons. A weak cold front will move through next week, bringing stronger westerly winds and cooler inland temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Stratus is continuing to clear. SW flow is delaying the clearing in Santa Cruz, Marin, and Sonoma counties, but there should be a few hours of sunshine before the next round of clouds develop this evening. The marine layer is quite deep, with the Ft. Ord profiler showing marine air from the surface to roughly 2,200 ft. This is quite a bit deeper than models suggest, which has led to some issues with the forecast. Not only are the deeper clouds penetrating further inland than expected, some of the thicker cloud decks have been producing measurable drizzle and light rain in Monterey, Santa Cruz and Napa counties early this morning. The forecast was adjusted to show a 15% chance of rain and 0.01" QPF for these areas tomorrow, as there is no synoptic reason for the marine layer to compress very much. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 The same pattern will continue through the weekend with cloudy mornings and clear afternoons. The jet stream will take a dip south next week, causing a transition to a troughing pattern early next week. This pattern looks to persist through the week and will bring a few weak cold fronts, cooler temperatures, and breezy NW winds. Coastal drizzle may become a bit more prominent at times as well. High temperatures will reamin in the 60s along the coast, but will cool to the 70s inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024 A 2,000 ft deep marine layer is proving persistent. The clouds are mixing out this morning, and the terminals should enjoy a VFR window this afternoon. NW winds will be moderate to strong before decreasing overnight. The stratus return will be similar to last night with a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings expected. Vicinity of SFO...Due to southerly flow, SFO managed to dodge a ceiling this morning, and the window has now closed as the cloud bank retreats for the day. Winds will soon shift to westerly as the sea breeze kicks in. Low clouds are expected to return overnight and there is a 50% chance of developing an IFR ceiling in the morning at both SFO and OAK. The visibility should reamin VFR with moderate winds persisting overnight. Monterey Bay Terminals...While the clouds are getting thinner, they skies are only expected to open up for a few hours this afternoon before an early return of stratus this evening at both MRY and SNS. Otherwise W-NW winds will be moderate this afternoon before decreasing overnight. With the deep marine layer, there is also a chance for coastal drizzle in the early morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean shift eastward towards California. As a result, the pressure gradient will tighten and northwesterly winds will increase, particularly over the northernmost zones and outer waters. Significant wave heights will build to very rough over the outer waters through early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea