-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
883
FXUS61 KRLX 180601
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Sunday.
Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving
thunderstorms and showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 155 AM Saturday...

An upper level disturbance will pull out of the area early this
morning, providing an end to the widespread rain. Moisture will
remain behind however, so some showers remain possible. Daytime
heating will work with the moisture left behind to provide
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be more numerous
in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. While
precipitable water values will drop some compared to Friday, the
ground is now saturated in most locations. Am also concerned
with the slow moving nature of the storms today. Therefore can
not rule out some isolated flash flooding.

With all the recent rainfall and light winds tonight, expect
dense fog to form at most locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge
nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or
storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but
most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build
eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An
isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week,
particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to
effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry
with little to no development.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1217 PM Friday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Saturday...

Rain and showers across the area will gradually pull off to the
northeast early this morning. Expect MVFR conditions in the
precipitation with some IFR conditions at times. Some clearing
and holes in the clouds will allow for dense fog in southeast
Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and portions of western West Virginia.

After the fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to
cause restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area Saturday
night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of fog early this
morning could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 05/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning. IFR
possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern
West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY