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401
FXUS61 KRLX 182327
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
727 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend could
cause localized high water, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. High pressure surface and aloft builds through Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 715 PM Saturday...

Did add in the latest guidance to winds and sky condition which
did not change much. Winds will still go down to a dead flow
and sky condition will stay elevated when widespread valley fog
develops. Outside that, the forecast remains on track and most
shower activity has ended except for the northeast mountains and
from the looks of it on radar and satellite those clouds are
slowly dissipating.

As of 220 PM Saturday...

A mid-upper level short wave trough nearby this afternoon drifts
east of the area tonight, giving way to building mid-upper level
ridging on Sunday. With the elevated heat source effect, convection
this afternoon will be most likely in and near the mountains,
nearer the short wave. With surface dew points in the lower 60s
F and h85 dew points in the lower 10s C contributing to PW
values of around 1.25 inches, any thunderstorm this afternoon
could be heavy and slow moving if it could remain standing amid
the light flow.

As the short wave slowly drifts away, and the sun sets,
convection will die down, lastly in southeast portions of the
area this evening, as a weak mid-upper level low center in the
trough axis scoots by just to the south of the forecast area.

Areas of dense fog are likely to form again tonight. With
moisture more shallow compared with last night and this morning,
expect the fog to be more confined to the valleys, but also
most likely where ever showers or thunderstorms occur this
afternoon.

With the more shallow moist layer, any fog is likely to lift
and mix out quicker than was the case today.

With building mid-upper level ridging and drying Sunday, PW
values drop to just under an inch, and afternoon convection
will be less prevalent than today, and confined to the
mountains.

Central guidance temperatures reflect an above normal regime by
just a few degrees today, and a few more degrees tacked on for
Sunday, with lows tonight also above normal. Valleys tonight
will be a bit cooler than hill and ridgetops. Surface dew
points remain just below uncomfortable levels for most.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A few showers or storms, mainly across the higher terrain from peak
heating, should slowly dissipate Sunday evening. Drier, and
increasingly warmer weather is in store for Monday into Tuesday, as
high pressure surface and aloft builds into the region. Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during
peak heating hours either of these days, provided something can
break through the cap, but overall, expect much of the period and
area to remain dry. With the building ridge across the area, some
locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according
to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected,
even though this is below criteria for an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point looking to be to our west, but confidence in this is low
at this point due to uncertainty. Another wave looks to move into
the area for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Saturday...

Outside fog development expected overnight, VFR will prevail.
The fog will develop under clear skies and calm wind across the
valleys at first, but then spill into all sites. IFR, even LIFR
at times, will be prevalent from the early morning hours to
late morning then lifting and scattering out by just after
sunrise. BKW may take slightly longer if dense stratus develops.
For tomorrow, look for afternoon cumulus and VFR conditons
except for maybe some lower Cu at EKN or CKB going into the mid
to late afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog formation
overnight tonight, and lifting of fog Sunday morning, could
vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR in fog possible overnight Sunday night into early Monday
morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ