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364
FXUS61 KRLX 161445
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1045 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers continue tapering off this morning as a surface low
slowly drifts east. Mostly dry today and into Friday morning
before rain returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1045 AM Thursday...

Forecast continues to hold steady this morning as clouds begin
to scatter out across the south-central portions of the forecast
area. Temps/dew points remain cooperative from the inherited
forecast, so no changes were necessary with this update.

As of 645 AM Thursday...

Forecast remains on track, no changes needed. Still seeing dense
fog in spots, but most locations are starting to see surface
winds pick up which will help conditions improve. Areas with
poor drainage winds will likely hold onto it longer.

As of 215 AM Thursday...

A weakening low pressure system is hanging on for dear life
overhead as a stalling cold front hangs across the area.
Showers will continue to spawn across the lowlands the next few
hours, until the circulation unravels and the front becomes
stationary due to strong subsidence just to the east.

Not expecting much to accumulate out of any showers as flow is
stagnant and there is virtually no support, ultimately they will
pop-up and then fade out. Nonetheless will have to keep an eye
on any that show stronger reflectivities, as a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall is still valid until later this morning.

Widespread fog and low stratus will form and stick around until
about mid-morning. The worst visibilities will be for areas that
saw the most rainfall this past afternoon. Looking at hoisting
an SPS across the area for dense fog through the morning.

Somewhat dry today, but some additional pop-up afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with a
stationary front across the area gaining some steam and drifting
east. This activity will be confined mostly along the mountains
and foothills though.Temperatures will be rather warm and even
slightly above normal for some; upper 70s to around 80 in the
lowlands, with 60s and 70s in the mountains.

Another round of fog and low stratus could be possible tonight
going into Friday morning, especially for areas that receive any
rain today. Our next system starts to creep up on the area
Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* A slow-moving system brings a sustained period of rainfall
  chances Friday through Saturday night.
* Some embedded heavier rain and slow-moving areas of
  precipitation could lead to water issues later Friday through
  Saturday night.


The forecast remains somewhat hazy on the evolution of this
system for Friday into the weekend. This is largely thanks to
the southern stream trough getting somewhat separated from the
jet and thus moving rather slowly and perhaps a bit erratically
as it tracks toward the east coast. Regardless, a mostly dry
start across the CWA Friday morning will then yield to showers
encroaching from the west as a weak and ill-defined boundary
moves across the Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity
becomes more widespread Friday evening and night as a low
pressure system moves east across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and towards the southern Appalachians. This low may then
essentially occlude over our region, keeping widespread showers
and some additional thunderstorm chances over the CWA through
Saturday. Things become more uncertain for Saturday night into
Sunday, as the guidance is split on whether the upper-trough
lingers over us, or shifts just enough to the east to really
start to cut down on precip chances across the CWA. The balance
of guidance does lean towards the eastward solution, so POPs are
generally reduced, but chance POPs are maintained area-wide,
with likely POPs in the mountains.

The latest QPF forecast, now covering the whole event, would
bring 1.5-2.0 inches to the higher terrain along the eastern
border, with 1.0-1.5 inches for the bulk of lower elevations in
WV and our NE KY counties. The Mid-Ohio Valley is currently
forecast to get the least rain, generally 0.5-1.0 inches. WPC
has maintained the whole area in a Marginal excessive rainfall
risk for Days 2, and and the bulk of the area for Day 3 (minus
north-central WV and SE Ohio) - and that seems reasonable based
on the forecast and recent rains.

Temps are forecast to hover w/in a few degrees of normal for
highs, but with the clouds and rain, lows are likely to be a
good deal milder than normal for mid-May.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

Once any lingering mountain showers dissipate, mostly dry
conditions are forecast to start the long-term period, as an
upper-level ridge slowly slides east across the region. The dry
weather should last at least into Tuesday morning, and while
some showers and storms could sneak into our SE Ohio counties
during the day on Tuesday, the bulk of deterministic and
ensemble guidance holds off rain until Tuesday night or even
during the day on Wednesday when the approaching cold front may
finally push into the area.

With the ridging over the area, expect at least Monday and
Tuesday to be warmer than normal, generally low to mid-80s in
lower elevations, and 60s and 70s in higher terrain. Wednesday
will be a bit of a wild card depending on precip and speed of
the front. Regardless, did knock a degree or two off of the NBM
high temps in the long-term, as it seemed significantly higher
than the bulk of the guidance, and even much of the bias-
corrected guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 AM Thursday...

Fog and low stratus is widespread this morning with most sites
reporting IFR/LIFR CIGs and VIS. Will start to see improvement
between ~13-15Z depending on which sites see surface winds pick
up, which most models keep the winds calm or light and variable
through the morning. Light westerly to northerly flow is
expected to take over this afternoon.

Conditions will improve gradually throughout the day, but
MVFR CIGs will be likely into the afternoon. VFR looks to take
back over for most by ~20-21Z.

There remains a chance for some showers and thunderstorms later
this afternoon, but convection is a toss up depending on how
much clearing occurs. That said, allowed VCTS for some sites
this afternoon to cover remote convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting and dissipating may
vary from forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Friday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC