-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
404
FXUS61 KRLX 141722
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers give way to more widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Mainly dry Thursday,
then unsettled to end the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Subsidence in the wake of a shortwave departing to the northeast has
yielded only isolated additional showery activity late morning into
early this afternoon. Lower level cloudiness left in the wake of
morning precipitation has also impeded insolation with temperatures
running a few degrees under most guidance. There is some clearing of
clouds evident in visual imagery across the TN Valley and should see
at least some better surface heating moving up into the Southern
Coalfields prior to maximum diurnal heating. This may yield an
uptick in showers, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder heading
into this afternoon.

Otherwise, the primary driver of precipitation late this afternoon
into Wednesday will be a rather weak northern stream low currently
located over the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Will
see precipitation chances ramp up as shortwaves rotating around the
associated upper low along with broad scale ascent associated with
the left front quadrant of a 100KT H250 jet nosing up the TN Valley.
Through then overnight any showers or thunderstorms should be moving
along decently. Risk for severe storms through the late afternoon
will be rather limited by the significant cloud cover squashing
surface heating, but couldn`t rule out a stronger storm or two where
clouds can break given around 35KTs of deep layer shear - primarily
across E KY into SW VA.

During the day Wednesday, as the upper low opens into a weak wave
and the surface low drifts overhead, could see more of a concern for
high water issues with very slow moving and repetitive precipitation
cores in the presence of warm cloud depths of around 9000 ft and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches. With recent
relatively dry conditions and the greenup now complete, any issues
would likely be very isolated - somewhat more likely if these
repetitive cores happen to cross an area of especially poor drainage
or built up area. Risk for severe weather will be severely limited
by weak flow through the column.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...

Both the upper-level and surface lows will take their time
moving across the area on Wednesday, with widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms expected. The base of the upper trough
will slide off to the east Wednesday night, and precip coverage
should diminish across the area as a result. A shortwave upper-
level ridge will move over the area on Thursday, but indications
are that it will be a `dirty` ridge, with some showers and a few
thunderstorms possible. This activity will be strongly diurnally
driven, and also with a significant terrain influence, but we
could still see some convection in the lower elevations. All
activity seems likely to drop off Thursday night.

If there are any ongoing hydro issues Wednesday morning, they
could be exacerbated by the further rainfall during the day
Wednesday, but overall the system seems more likely to just be a
healthy soaking rain. Temps will remain somewhat suppressed on
Wednesday with the widespread clouds and showers, and should
bounce back a bit on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

The next disturbance approaches on Friday, with shower and
thunderstorm activity likely increasing in the afternoon and
overnight hours. There is a chance this could be another slow-
moving system, but models disagree greatly on just how slow.
That said, likely POPs over 50% are maintained through Saturday.
After that, models diverge on whether there will be a break or
if this system will linger over the region, and on how quickly
the next disturbance will arrive. So while the uncertainty leads
to maintaining chance POPs across the area on Sunday and Monday,
it`s not likely to have activity across the area that whole
time. There will be breaks, but pinning down the time of those
breaks just isn`t possible at this time.

There`s a good chance that Friday will be a bit warmer than
normal ahead of the encroaching front and precip, with lower
elevation highs mainly in the lower 80s. The forecast is a few
degrees lower on Saturday with the greater confidence in it
being rainy and cloudy that day. Sunday and Monday temperatures
will likely hinge a lot on the evolution of the precip and sky
cover forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Overcast ceilings 030-040 this afternoon with a few patches of MVFR
with patchy showers deteriorate overnight as more widespread
precipitation enters the region. Initially, will have enough
boundary layer flow to keep things somewhat stirred up through
around 05Z, but weakening flow through the remainder of the
overnight should allow a completely saturated column to begin to
generate IFR ceilings and perhaps some fog heading into morning. For
now, will code primarily IFR, but at least spotty LIFR will also be
possible, especially where showers are more persistent.

Should see a brief break in precipitation Wednesday morning before
showers begin to fill in after this TAF period Wednesday afternoon.

Winds generally light, favoring a southeast direction, except 6-8KT
with some gusts into the teens in downslope near BKW this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more dense than advertised
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier
rain showers Wednesday afternoon.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JP