-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
240
FXUS61 KRLX 140217
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1017 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation chances return to the region late tonight with
showers lasting into Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday, then
unsettled for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1010 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed at this
time.

As of 710 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track. No significant changes were made
at this time. Did however update sky condition with the latest
guidance and it added slightly more sky coverage for the
near term period. Winds were also raised just a tad for
tomorrow afternoon.

As of 120 PM Monday...

Transient ridging with associated deep dry air gives way to
deep southwesterly flow as ridging shifts east this evening.
This yields increasing column moisture and increasing
precipitation chances late tonight into Tuesday as both warm
advection down low and embedded shortwaves up high move through
the region. Largely think any widespread accumulation
precipitation holds off until after midnight. The initial swath
of more widespread showers exits to the northeast by late
morning with additional pop-up activity possible through the
late afternoon. Couldn`t completely rule out a stronger storm
Tuesday afternoon if more significant breaks to sunshine can be
realized prior to the approach of a rather weak northern stream
low, but deep layer shear 30KTs or less would generally limit
this. Currently the region is only outlooked for general thunder
by SPC.

The aforementioned approaching low moves overhead Tuesday
evening with steering flow becoming weak to very weak. Some
potential will exist for slow moving storms focused along a
remnant frontal boundary/developing occluded boundary in the
vicinity of the Middle Ohio Valley late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. In our fully greened up state, most areas should
be able to handle some heavier persistent downpours. Areas
across our north do have the most moisture in the soils from
heavier rainfall a few days ago however, and if these persistent
downpours were to linger over some of these spots could see
some issues start to emerge with a quick 1.5 to 2 inches in
spots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 PM Monday...

Low pressure will move over the area Wednesday, bringing continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low 500-mb heights will lead
to a cooler day for most with high temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Severe weather is not expected due to weak wind profiles
and a lack of instability. The threat of flooding will be low, but
areas that see repeated downpours may be at risk of localized
flooding.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday with northwest
flow returning. This should bring mainly dry weather Thursday with a
small chance of showers in the mountains. The return of afternoon
sunshine should help temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain cooler as
cloud cover hangs around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1236 PM Monday...

Another low pressure system and its associated warm front will
approach from the west Friday, bringing the return of showers by
Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for next weekend with upper-level low pressure
lingering over the mid-Atlantic region. We are currently forecasting
near-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with the return of
summer-like warmth by Sunday. However, confidence in the overall
forecast remains low at this time, and everything will depend
on the evolution of the upper- level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 720 PM Monday...

Mostly VFR conditions will be in control with some temporary
MVFR (mostly high end) expected through this period. Mainly
looking at MVFR by late morning with some early afternoon light
showers holding VIS restrictions to just 6SM. By mid to late
afternoon CIGs should lift slightly back to VFR with some light
rain as well. Kept VIS restrictions at 6SM but some potential
heavier showers in the late afternoon could drop VIS down to
below 6SM temporarily, but sites should bounce right back to
unrestricted. Winds will primarily be light in nature, mainly
out of the south at around 5-10KT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier
rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ