-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
759
FXUS61 KRLX 170642
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into
the weekend. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving
thunderstorms and showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Friday...

Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area
today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The
moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level
short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable
water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly
high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized
flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and
locations could see multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Friday...

Chances for precipitation will exist Saturday morning across the
forecast area, with the mountains seeing the most likely
manifestation. A surface low with a positive-tilt trough over the
TN/AR/KY area very sluggishly moves northeastward towards the area
on Saturday.

A moisture fetch carried by rounds of southern stream shortwaves
will advect over the area providing an increase in rain and
scattered thunderstorms through the day Saturday, especially as the
moves overhead Saturday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times in
the afternoon and evening with showers and storms, particularly
across the southern mountains and coalfields of WV/KY/VA where over
half an inch could fall.

The aforementioned low will start to slowly exit Sunday, but remnant
moisture will linger across the area on Sunday. Thankfully, any
additional amounts look rather light at this time. Temperatures will
be warm and around the normal for the season on both days.

Latest NAM guidance shows PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" over the
area through the weekend. This paired with weak flow, which is
typical with these southern stream systems that lack dynamic
forcing, creates some concerns for flash flooding under slower
moving storms and showers. That said, WPC has the area outlooked
for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Friday...

The area will be on the back side of a 500MB trough Monday morning,
as a ridge of high pressure attempts to nudge in behind. Monday and
Tuesday will be relatively dry as a result and a warming trend will
be in full swing with upper 70s/lower 80s returning to the
lowlands; upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.

Things look to become active for the rest of the week with a few
shortwaves moving through the grungy ridge on Wednesday, allowing
for possible diurnal convective activity to return.

The pattern then looks to flatten out going into Thursday with a few
shortwaves moving through thanks to a parked upper-low over Canada.
Warm temperatures will still hold true with upper 80s possible
across the typical lowland hot spots Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Friday...

Some dense fog could form early this morning where rainfall
occurred on Thursday. A cloud deck in the mid levels will also
be moving in from the west early this morning and could cause
the fog to dissipate early.

Models show a band of showers and thunderstorms moving into the
region today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR
restrictions should be confined to showers and thunderstorms.
Some MVFR cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and
early this afternoon.

An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and
thunderstorms Friday night. Any holes in the clouds could also
allow for fog to form.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming and dissipating early
this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms today could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night
into the weekend.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY