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072
FXUS61 KRLX 152349
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
today as surface low pressure slowly drifts east. Mostly dry
Thursday and Friday morning before rain returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms continue to pivot across the area as a low
slowly shifts overhead. Have made slight adjustments to
temperatures and PoPs to better reflect current observations.
Otherwise, the current forecast is generally on track this
evening.

As of 120 PM Wednesday...

The parent upper level low of the of the surface circulation
currently located over the Tri-State has opened up into a trough
with the surface low expected to drift slowly east through tonight.
Deep warm cloud depths with precipitable water values of 1.2 to 1.4
inches along with skinny instability profiles will yield efficient
rainfall production out of convection associated with this feature
this afternoon into this evening. With forcing for ascent focused
around the periphery of the spiraling, slow moving low, along with
very weak flow through the column the primary concern with this
feature will be localized heavy and persistent rainfall. While we
are fully greened up and fairly dry across much of the area, these
locally heavy rainfall rates could support excessive runoff and a
localized flash flood threat through late this evening. Given the
likely very localized nature of the threat along with potential for
these heavy QPF footprints to occur just about anywhere, do not
think this would warrant an entire CWA flash flood watch and will
continue to just highlight the risk in the HWO. While severe storms
are not expected with weak flow through the column, could see some
locally gusty winds near any heavy downpours.

Convection slowly dissipates with loss of heating and filling of the
surface low circulation overnight.

Some additional pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday afternoon. With continued weak flow these will
also be slow movers, but with a decrease in column moisture along
with a lack of focused forcing, do not expect any additional hydro
issues.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Lingering mountain showers come to an end early Friday morning,
but will quickly fill back in after daybreak as southern stream
shortwave energy presses into the lower Ohio Valley. Showers
and storms first encroach our western zones then spread eastward
into the afternoon and evening, with projected rainfall
accumulations that could promote localized flooding concerns.
Severe potential looks to be minimal with activity on Friday,
but given the slow movement anticipated with storms, this will
give rise to hydro concerns. QPF forecast for this time period
ranges from three quarters to an inch of rain, but could see an
over performance in the event of heavy downpours and training
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

A slow moving upper level trough will promote a soggy start to
the weekend as rain and embedded thunderstorms prevail over the
Central Appalachians. At the surface, a stationary boundary
retains residency in close proximity to the forecast area on
Saturday, with strong potential for rain throughout the day.
This will further invigorate flooding concerns heading into the
weekend, primarily watching for local flood prone areas.

After a washout beginning to the weekend, shower chances lessen
for Sunday as the upper trough shifts, albeit still at sluggish
pace, off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surface low pressure will
still be festering around the Delmarva area, which may keep
slight chance POPs along the higher terrain on Sunday afternoon.
Better clearing is progged for the start of the work week under
the aid of ridging aloft. A brief dry spell takes shape on
Monday, but active weather then looms for the the conclusion of
the extended period. Temperatures gradually recover to near or
slightly above climatological norms for this time of year for
the start of the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Wednesday...

Showers and isolated storms continue as a low slowly progresses
eastward this evening. Mainly VFR conditions are present this
evening, though temporary reductions to MVFR/IFR remain a
possibility in heavier precipitation or storms.

Precipitation coverage should diminish tonight, then low clouds
and areas of fog will be possible overnight. Fog will be most
likely where heavier rain fell during the day. Wherever fog
does develop, visibilities should deteriorate to IFR or LIFR.

Flight conditions improve again during the morning, then mainly
VFR is expected, outside of any afternoon showers or storms.

Calm to light and variable winds persist for tonight, then light
east to northeast flow is expected much of Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: End timing of precipitation may vary from
the forecast. Dense fog may develop overnight where heavy
rainfall occurs.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Friday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the weekend.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB