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050
FXUS61 KRLX 150708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
308 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rounds of showers give way to more widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms today as a slow moving system crosses the area.
Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled to end the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Rounds of showers will continue this morning as a slow moving
low pressure system and a warm front sit to our southwest,
pushing multiple shortwave disturbances through the area today.
Showers will be light to moderate overnight with most of the
convective activity staying to our south until after daybreak.

Very stagnant air flow is occurring with surface high pressure
sitting to our east and subsidence from departing shortwave
perturbations. As a result, low stratus and some fog will
develop this morning affecting the mountains, coalfields, and
the Tri-State Area with low visibilities at times.

Confidence is low in widespread convective/thunderstorm activity
associated with this system. HiRes CAMs are also leaning to the
pessimistic side, keeping the greatest potential across the
southern coalfields, greater SE Ohio and the Tri-State Area of
WV/KY/OH. These areas will be closest to the low which will be
the source of greatest lift. Thinking that more intense showers
will contain embedded lightning and thunder mid-morning into
late afternoon. SPC does have the area outlooked for general
thunderstorms to cover the possibility.

As the low pressure center crosses the area later today,
showers will become more widespread in coverage. The air column
will fairly saturated as this system passes with some decent
amounts manifesting from some heavier showers. WPC as a result
has our area outlooked for a marginal risk as the combination of
slow moving cells and favorable terrain could lead to some
localized flooding today into tonight. Long-term FFG suggests
that we will be able to handle most if not all of what we
receive today and tonight, especially with the full greenup
across the forecast area. Short-term 1hr/3hr FFG is lower
between 1" to 1.5", but this is manageable unless more intense
cells train over the same areas throughout the day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Showers and any lingering convection come to an end early
Thursday morning as an upper level trough and adjoined surface
low shift off the eastern seaboard. Shortwave ridging helps to
ease potential for activity for Thursday afternoon, but
diurnally driven convection looks to sprout along the higher
terrain during peak heating hours. A brief moment of reprieve
looks plausible Thursday night ahead of another upper trough
aiming for the Ohio Valley for the end of the work week.

After a cool start to the morning Thursday within lingering
precipitation, temperatures are progged to recover into the
upper 70s along the Ohio River Valley in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather slithers back into the forecast for the end of
the work week as a negatively titled trough charges through the
country. Showers overtake the area from west to east throughout
the day Friday, with coverage ramping up by the evening and
overnight hours. Rain, and embedded thunderstorms, then
stretches into the weekend as a surface low slowly meanders over
the Ohio Valley in the midst of its parent trough stationed
over the Central Appalachians.

There still remains a wide array of model solutions for how
activity pans out for Sunday onward, so opted not to stray too
far from central guidance for the time being. This portrays a
slightly drier day on Sunday as the trough sluggishly shifts
eastward, but keeps slight chance/chance POPs along the spine of
the Appalachians for the afternoon. Once this features departs
further eastward, there will be a brief dry spell for Monday
morning, but diurnally driven convection looks feasible within
an afternoon cumulus field that develops. After a brief cool
down over the weekend, temperatures recover back into the
70s/80s for the end of the weekend into the start of next week.

May have to become vigilant for hydro issues as the weekend
wears on, especially if heavier bursts of rain track over areas
that receive an adequate amount of accumulation from preceding
activity.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 110 AM Wednesday...

Conditions are variable right now due to low stratus and
scattered showers, but most sites are reporting VFR, except for
HTS which is experiencing LIFR conditions due to fog and low
stratus. CRW is hinting at the same conditions as well and will
likely see IFR and LIFR restrictions in the next few hours.

VIS restrictions will bounce this morning at most sites as fog,
light winds, and showers will all vary through the morning.
BKW, CRW and HTS will see the worst restrictions this morning
though. CIGs will drop to low-end MVFR and IFR due to low
stratus and scattered showers with gradual improvement to mostly
MVFR expected through the day today; VFR expected by ~00Z
tonight except across the mountains.

Rounds of scattered showers will continue to move through this
morning due to a slow moving low pressure system and warm front
to our southwest. Allowed TEMPO groups at multiple sites to
cover the uncertainty with timing for showers as well as cover
variable VIS restrictions. There remains a chance for
thunderstorms by mid-morning into early afternoon, but
confidence is low in widespread thunderstorm activity so allowed
VCTS at BKW, CRW and HTS as these sites will be closest to
greatest forcing.


Winds light and variable this morning, especially across the
lowlands where directions will vary between north and
southeasterly. The mountains will remain light and mostly
southeasterly with breezy gusts at times. Expecting much more
variability this afternoon as a low pressure center tracks
across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS and CIG will vary overnight. Fog may be
more dense than advertised at BKW, CRW and HTS. Thunderstorms
could be more scattered than forecasted.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 05/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    L    M    L    L    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in low
stratus and remnant rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC