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473
FXUS61 KRLX 171618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1218 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into
the weekend. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving
thunderstorms and showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM Friday...

Refreshed temps and shower coverage for this morning to remain
reflective of current trends. Early morning convection grazing
our northwestern zones has now pushed off into the PBZ CWA, but
stratiform rain has begun to engulf the western flank of our
area. Interpolated into the afternoon inherited forecast as
widespread activity is still progged for the second half of the
day.

As of 135 AM Friday...

Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area
today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The
moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level
short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable
water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly
high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized
flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and
locations could see multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Chances for precipitation will exist Saturday morning across the
forecast area, with the mountains seeing the most likely
manifestation. A surface low with a positive-tilt trough over the
TN/AR/KY area very sluggishly moves northeastward towards the area
on Saturday.

A moisture fetch carried by rounds of southern stream shortwaves
will advect over the area providing an increase in rain and
scattered thunderstorms through the day Saturday, especially as the
moves overhead Saturday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times in
the afternoon and evening with showers and storms, particularly
across the southern mountains and coalfields of WV/KY/VA where over
half an inch could fall.

The aforementioned low will start to slowly exit Sunday, but remnant
moisture will linger across the area on Sunday. Thankfully, any
additional amounts look rather light at this time. Temperatures will
be warm and around the normal for the season on both days.

Latest NAM guidance shows PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" over the
area through the weekend. This paired with weak flow, which is
typical with these southern stream systems that lack dynamic
forcing, creates some concerns for flash flooding under slower
moving storms and showers. That said, WPC has the area outlooked
for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1217 PM Friday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to
uncertainty.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 550 AM Friday...

Any remaining dense fog will dissipate early this morning as
mid level clouds move into the area.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region
today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR restrictions
should be confined to showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR
cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and early this
afternoon.

An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and
thunderstorms tonight. Any holes in the clouds could also allow
for fog to form.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating early this
morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms today could vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night
into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...RPY/MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY