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148
FXUS61 KRLX 140641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Precipitation chances return this morning with showers lasting
into Wednesday due to a slow moving low pressure system. Mainly
dry Thursday, then unsettled for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Starting to see some light showers traverse the area this
morning as a surface trough extends over the region. A slow-
moving low pressure system over MO/IL will gradually make its
way to us today, while in the meantime sending more of these
shower spawning perturbations over the region.

For now, kept chance PoPs until the afternoon when more light to
moderate showers will move through from SW to NE. The heaviest
of the rain looks to hold off until this tonight though, and
even then amounts will be less than half an inch. WPC has most
of the area, minus the northern lowlands, outlooked for a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall as this will be more of an
accumulative event over the next few days.

Short-range guidance has been sticking to its guns on precipitable
water values nearing 1.50" the past few days, but latest HRRR
and NAM guidance has backed off quite a bit, still above 1.00"
though, but no higher than 1.30". Some localized flooding may
occur within some moderate to heavy bands of showers, but not
currently concerned with anything impactful.

Models are split on how warm temperatures will get today,
depending on extent of cloud cover. Starting to see more trend
downward though which would impact convection. We are outlooked
for general thunderstorms today, and a few isolated
thunderstorms are likely if clearing does occur this afternoon.
Models are slowing the speed at which the low pressure
circulation moves across the Ohio River Valley and keep the
region out of the warm sector. That said, instability looks very
meager (less than 500 J/Kg) until the low arrives later in the
evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 PM Monday...

Low pressure will move over the area Wednesday, bringing continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low 500-mb heights will lead
to a cooler day for most with high temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Severe weather is not expected due to weak wind profiles
and a lack of instability. The threat of flooding will be low, but
areas that see repeated downpours may be at risk of localized
flooding.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday with northwest
flow returning. This should bring mainly dry weather Thursday with a
small chance of showers in the mountains. The return of afternoon
sunshine should help temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain cooler as
cloud cover hangs around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1236 PM Monday...

Another low pressure system and its associated warm front will
approach from the west Friday, bringing the return of showers by
Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for next weekend with upper-level low pressure
lingering over the mid-Atlantic region. We are currently forecasting
near-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with the return of
summer-like warmth by Sunday. However, confidence in the overall
forecast remains low at this time, and everything will depend
on the evolution of the upper- level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 115 AM Tuesday...

Showers are starting to enter the forecast area as a surface
trough extends over the region ahead of a low pressure system
over the Midwest. Showers will be light and should not cause VIS
restrictions, but a few dips to high-end MVFR territory could be
possible. CIGS will be mostly VFR, but MVFR will likely stream
in across the mountains this morning.

A brief reprieve to VFR will be most likely by afternoon, but by
evening, CIGs will tank to MVFR and IFR due to light rain
showers filling in as the low pressure system nears. The lowest
CIGs will be observed across the mountain sites. VIS will likely
remain VFR, but MVFR restrictions could be possible across the
mountain sites. Allowed VCTS later this afternoon and evening
for a few sites as forcing from the system could allow for some
isolated TS, but not confident in this manifesting due to very
weak instability.

Winds mostly light with a southerly component through the
period, though will likely be breezy at times across the
mountains and the Ohio River Valley.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS restrictions could be lower than
forecast within moderate to heavier showers.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier
rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC