Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
055 FXUS61 KRLX 131725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances return to the region late tonight with showers lasting lasting into Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... Transient ridging with and associated deep dry air gives way to deep southwesterly flow as ridging shifts east this evening. This yields increasing column moisture and increasing precipitation chances late tonight into Tuesday as both warm advection down low and embedded shortwaves up high move through the region. Largely think any widespread accumulation precipitation holds off until after midnight. The initial swath of more widespread showers exits to the northeast by late morning with additional pop-up activity possible through the late afternoon. Couldn`t completely rule out a stronger storm Tuesday afternoon if more significant breaks to sunshine can be realized prior to the approach of a rather weak northern stream low, but deep layer shear 30KTs or less would generally limit this. Currently the region is only outlooked for general thunder by SPC. The aforementioned approaching low moves overhead Tuesday evening with steering flow becoming weak to very weak. Some potential will exist for slow moving storms focused along a remnant frontal boundary/developing occluded boundary in the vicinity of the Middle Ohio Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. In our fully greened up state, most areas should be able to handle some heavier persistent downpours. Areas across our north do have the most moisture in the soils from heavier rainfall a few days ago however, and if these persistent downpours were to linger over some of these spots could see some issues start to emerge with a quick 1.5 to 2 inches in spots. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1235 PM Monday... Low pressure will move over the area Wednesday, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low 500-mb heights will lead to a cooler day for most with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Severe weather is not expected due to weak wind profiles and a lack of instability. The threat of flooding will be low, but areas that see repeated downpours may be at risk of localized flooding. A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday with northwest flow returning. This should bring mainly dry weather Thursday with a small chance of showers in the mountains. The return of afternoon sunshine should help temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain cooler as cloud cover hangs around a bit longer. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1236 PM Monday... Another low pressure system and its associated warm front will approach from the west Friday, bringing the return of showers by Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for next weekend with upper-level low pressure lingering over the mid-Atlantic region. We are currently forecasting near-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with the return of summer-like warmth by Sunday. However, confidence in the overall forecast remains low at this time, and everything will depend on the evolution of the upper- level pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... VFR conditions are expected through late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Clouds progressively build into the region from the south this afternoon into the overnight as transient ridging exits to the east with increasing southwesterly flow. Expect virga by late tonight with showers beginning to reach the ground after midnight this evening. As the column progressively moistens, expect widespread MVFR ceilings to develop heading into Tuesday morning. Some heavier rainshowers may briefly reduce visibility under 6SM. Winds generally under 10KTs and southerly. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JP