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347
FXUS61 KRLX 161749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and an isolated storm possible through this
evening. Better potential for rain arrives on Friday into the
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 150 PM Thursday...

Satellite trends at the time of writing displayed one cluster
stretching through the I-64 and I-77 corridors of lingering
stratus, while clearing has taken place for southeast Ohio and
eastern and southern West Virginia. Dry air entrainment in the
midst of a departing front will encourage further clearing over
the next few hours. Areas that have branched out with peeks of
sunshine already will have the best chance of sufficient
diurnal heating today to achieve afternoon highs in the upper
70s, while those still socked in within heavier cloud coverage
will stay a few degrees cooler than guidance suggests.

Within the cumulus fields along the foothills and mountains of
West Virginia this afternoon, a few showers have begun to
sprout and progressing to the southeast. Lackluster upper level
support will mitigate additional growth outside of a rogue
thunderstorm today, keeping severe weather potential at bay.
Activity will diminish quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

Overnight conditions are progged to be quiet, with the exception
of low level clouds and river valley fog developing along the
higher terrain. For Friday, a disturbance ventures in from the
west, first reintroducing clouds overhead followed by a gradual
increase in precipitation. Light rainfall accumulations first
begin west of the Ohio River Friday morning, then spreading
eastward throughout the day and increasing in response to
potential convective trends. Localized flooding concerns become
more feasible as the day wears on around the forecast area,
especially in the event of multiple rounds of showers and storms
and/or heavier downbursts associated with convection.
Temperatures once again branch into the 60s (mountains) and mid
to upper 70s (lowlands) for Friday afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* A slow-moving system brings a sustained period of rainfall
  chances Friday through Saturday night.
* Some embedded heavier rain and slow-moving areas of
  precipitation could lead to water issues later Friday through
  Saturday night.


The forecast remains somewhat hazy on the evolution of this
system for Friday into the weekend. This is largely thanks to
the southern stream trough getting somewhat separated from the
jet and thus moving rather slowly and perhaps a bit erratically
as it tracks toward the east coast. Regardless, a mostly dry
start across the CWA Friday morning will then yield to showers
encroaching from the west as a weak and ill-defined boundary
moves across the Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity
becomes more widespread Friday evening and night as a low
pressure system moves east across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and towards the southern Appalachians. This low may then
essentially occlude over our region, keeping widespread showers
and some additional thunderstorm chances over the CWA through
Saturday. Things become more uncertain for Saturday night into
Sunday, as the guidance is split on whether the upper-trough
lingers over us, or shifts just enough to the east to really
start to cut down on precip chances across the CWA. The balance
of guidance does lean towards the eastward solution, so POPs are
generally reduced, but chance POPs are maintained area-wide,
with likely POPs in the mountains.

The latest QPF forecast, now covering the whole event, would
bring 1.5-2.0 inches to the higher terrain along the eastern
border, with 1.0-1.5 inches for the bulk of lower elevations in
WV and our NE KY counties. The Mid-Ohio Valley is currently
forecast to get the least rain, generally 0.5-1.0 inches. WPC
has maintained the whole area in a Marginal excessive rainfall
risk for Days 2, and and the bulk of the area for Day 3 (minus
north-central WV and SE Ohio) - and that seems reasonable based
on the forecast and recent rains.

Temps are forecast to hover w/in a few degrees of normal for
highs, but with the clouds and rain, lows are likely to be a
good deal milder than normal for mid-May.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

Once any lingering mountain showers dissipate, mostly dry
conditions are forecast to start the long-term period, as an
upper-level ridge slowly slides east across the region. The dry
weather should last at least into Tuesday morning, and while
some showers and storms could sneak into our SE Ohio counties
during the day on Tuesday, the bulk of deterministic and
ensemble guidance holds off rain until Tuesday night or even
during the day on Wednesday when the approaching cold front may
finally push into the area.

With the ridging over the area, expect at least Monday and
Tuesday to be warmer than normal, generally low to mid-80s in
lower elevations, and 60s and 70s in higher terrain. Wednesday
will be a bit of a wild card depending on precip and speed of
the front. Regardless, did knock a degree or two off of the NBM
high temps in the long-term, as it seemed significantly higher
than the bulk of the guidance, and even much of the bias-
corrected guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 150 PM Thursday...

Persnickety IFR ceilings continue to fester over the central
lowlands this afternoon as a front drifts nearby. Skies are
anticipated to scatter over the next several hours, so opted to
include tempo groups for sites still socked within low level
stratus through 21Z then branching out into VFR for the evening.

Winds grow calm overnight and help to encourage another round of
fog and/or low stratus along the spine of the Appalachians
tonight. Elsewhere, pockets of MVFR ceilings trickle down into
the Ohio River Valley around daybreak Friday morning ahead of a
system encroaching for the weekend. Mixing may allow for low-end
VFR for the daytime hours Friday, with showers becoming more
likely as the afternoon wears on.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving ceilings may vary this
afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Friday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the weekend.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...MEK