-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
764
FXUS61 KRLX 181425
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1025 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend could
cause localized high water, mainly this afternoon and evening.
High pressure surface and aloft builds through Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1025 AM Saturday...

Fine-tuned timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through this evening. Other than that, and shaking the stratus
the fog lifted into, the forecast is on track.

As of 155 AM Saturday...

An upper level disturbance will pull out of the area early this
morning, providing an end to the widespread rain. Moisture will
remain behind however, so some showers remain possible. Daytime
heating will work with the moisture left behind to provide
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be more numerous
in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. While
precipitable water values will drop some compared to Friday, the
ground is now saturated in most locations. Am also concerned
with the slow moving nature of the storms today. Therefore can
not rule out some isolated flash flooding.

With all the recent rainfall and light winds tonight, expect
dense fog to form at most locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

The surface low responsible for the heavy rain will be out of our
area on Sunday, but remnant moisture will linger across the
area, mostly along the eastern mountains. This will only manifest
as afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two across
the higher elevations though. Thankfully, any additional
rainfall amounts look rather light.

Stark clearing will take place from west to east on Sunday as an
upper-level ridge moves in to bring most of us a bit of a dry spell
to end the weekend. Temperatures will be warm and above normal for
the season, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s being common
across the lowlands; 70s in the mountains.

On Monday, the ridge will continue to build, keeping us mostly
dry. A few shortwaves could move through the pattern to create
chances for diurnal convection, especially with a warming trend
in place. Confidence is low at this time for anything certain or
organized. Temperatures will be well above normal with mid to
upper 80s expected for the bulk of the lowlands; 70s and 80s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

Mostly dry Tuesday outside of a few diurnal storm chances. Warming
trend will still be in full swing with above normal and hot
temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

A low pressure center will move out of the upper Midwest and into
Canada middle of the week. As a result, a few shortwaves look
to move through Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will pass
on Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible on both days with
the return of an active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 543 AM Saturday...

After dense fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
The cumulus deck could produce MVFR conditions this morning. Some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause
restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting this morning could
vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today
could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected Sunday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern West Virginia and
southwestern Virginia.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY