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649
FXUS61 KRLX 171816
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Gloomy with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing today
and lingering into Sunday. Water issues possible this weekend
with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 216 PM Friday...

A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an
upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to
arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight
hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the
southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of
sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked
overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain
passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some
breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.

With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes
the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft
depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving
activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this
could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office
neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to
monitor through the course of the day.

Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread
clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode
from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective
activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and
along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did
retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures
will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient
daytime heating.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Chances for precipitation will exist Saturday morning across the
forecast area, with the mountains seeing the most likely
manifestation. A surface low with a positive-tilt trough over the
TN/AR/KY area very sluggishly moves northeastward towards the area
on Saturday.

A moisture fetch carried by rounds of southern stream shortwaves
will advect over the area providing an increase in rain and
scattered thunderstorms through the day Saturday, especially as the
moves overhead Saturday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times in
the afternoon and evening with showers and storms, particularly
across the southern mountains and coalfields of WV/KY/VA where over
half an inch could fall.

The aforementioned low will start to slowly exit Sunday, but remnant
moisture will linger across the area on Sunday. Thankfully, any
additional amounts look rather light at this time. Temperatures will
be warm and around the normal for the season on both days.

Latest NAM guidance shows PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" over the
area through the weekend. This paired with weak flow, which is
typical with these southern stream systems that lack dynamic
forcing, creates some concerns for flash flooding under slower
moving storms and showers. That said, WPC has the area outlooked
for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1217 PM Friday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 216 PM Friday...

Showers have returned to the area this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance treks through the Ohio Valley. While PKB
remains under IFR skies, general observation around the area
appears to be MVFR cigs triumphing overhead. Saw no signs of
lightning at the time of TAF issuance quite yet, but as peeks of
sunshine slip through the canopy of overcast, some daytime
heating may help to sprout a few isolated thunderstorms today.
VCTS was included for this afternoon into late tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions prevail into the overnight hours under the
combination of low level stratus and pockets of fog. Ceilings
will gradually lift through the day Saturday, but at sluggish
pace. Convective activity looks to be less for western terminals
Saturday afternoon, but remaining prevalent for the foothills
and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VCTS and/or TSRA may be needed through
tonight pending radar trends. Timing of vsby/cig restrictions
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    L    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK