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302
FXUS61 KBGM 060756
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping
away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into
the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional
systems with some showers move through for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 am update...

A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida
County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to increase to scattered early this morning across CNY then to
isolated late morning and afternoon. Forcing is weak with
little instability and wind shear. Low level moisture is good
with cloudy skies. The front will exit to the southeast out of
NEPA and the western Catskills early this evening. Rainfall
amounts will be light and spotty. Behind the front skies will
clear this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon.

Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest.
It will be a good radiational cooling night with clear skies
and light to calm winds. Patchy valley fog is possible late.
Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming
Valley of NEPA.

The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday. Sunny
skies give way to some clouds late coming in from the southwest.
Maybe a shower gets into Luzerne County early in the evening.
Winds will be light. High temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
356 AM Update...
Low pressure over Lake Erie will drift ENE Tuesday night, with
a weak warm front lifting across the area. Meanwhile, a jet
streak nosing into western NY will promote larger scale lift,
with rain showers expected to increase in coverage through the
night, lifting SW to NE.

Low pressure will move into the upper Saint Lawrence valley
Wednesday morning, with a cold front expected to push east
across NY state fairly early in the day, reaching the Hudson
Valley by early afternoon. Weak instability will develop ahead
of the front, with shear sufficient for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, but the timing of the front appears to be too
early except perhaps for the far eastern portions of the CWA.
Should the front slow down between now and then, the risk for
stronger thunderstorms would be greater.

Otherwise, most of the area, especially west of I-81, will be
dry Wed afternoon and evening. A few showers ahead of the next
system could work into the western Finger Lakes late Wednesday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
356 AM Update...

A slow moving upper level trough will move from the Great Lakes
Thursday into northern New England Saturday, bringing us a
period of unsettled weather. A deeper trough looks to carve
itself out across the Great Lakes in the wake of the first,
which may bring a return to unsettled weather again.

Surface low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley into Central
NY during the day Thursday, with widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected across the area. Showers look to linger
into Friday as low pressure is slow to move out, and wrap-around
showers and cooler temperatures will persist into Saturday,
though with diminished coverage.

Sunday is showing somewhat of an improving trend, as the next
system looks to bring showers into western NY/PA late in the
afternoon or early in the evening. Southerly flow ahead of this
system should bring temperatures back up closer to normal as
well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 AM Update...

Widespread MVFR are across the area early this morning, with
IFR still at BGM. All sites expected to fall to IFR this morning
then rise midday into the afternoon to VFR from north to south.

BGM will remain IFR until around 17z, then VFR by 20z. Through
15z cigs and possibly vsbys will be around airport minimums.

The rest of the sites are tougher with less confidence. Guidance
has all at IFR now but most are MVFR. IFR by 10z then most MVFR
by 14z, and VFR by 17z. AVP should hold onto the IFR until 19z
then lift to VFR by 23z. The cold front will be there this
afternoon so less mixing this afternoon.

Light winds under 7 kts early this morning, turning west
and northwest at 4 to 8 kts late morning and afternoon. Tonight
winds light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR
expected. Patchy early morning fog possible.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely
with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...TAC