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635
FXUS61 KBGM 170739
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure
approaches from the west. Rain is not expected to begin to move
in until mid to late afternoon with rain showers persisting into
Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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340 AM Update...

Mostly clear skies across much of the area for the first half
of the night has allowed for valley fog to develop once again
but mainly in the upper Susquehanna region. A marine layer is
pushing into NEPA early this morning that will bring some lower
stratus while high clouds stream in from the west as our next
shortwave dips into the Great Lakes region. Timing if the 500 mb
shortwave is a bit slower so it is looking more likely that
most of the area will stay dry into the late afternoon and early
evening. The rain will move in from the west impacting the
Finger Lakes and the western Southern Tier first around sunset.
Forecast soundings and layer RH are showing dry air persisting
west of I81 tomorrow night so chances of precipitation were
reduced and pushed back more towards Saturday morning. There is
a few hundred joules of CAPE across the Finger Lakes this
afternoon and evening so a few thunderstorms will likely be able
to get going.

The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday
but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though
coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit
heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late
morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is
not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough
destabilization.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Remnants of a weak frontal passage may stick around Sunday.
Ridging begins to build into the area Sunday, so it`s more
likely to be very light showers in the morning, with sky cover
decreasing through the day. As ridging slowly strengthens into
Monday, it`ll get warmer and drier with mostly clear skies,
temperatures in the high-70s to low-80s, and low humidity by
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Ridging maintains over our area Tuesday. It`ll be similar to
Monday; low humidity, mostly clear, and temperatures in the
high-70s to low-80s. Some valley areas may even hit mid-80s.
Things begin to get interesting heading into Wednesday. Ridging
begins sliding eastward, making room for the next system to
impact the forecast area Wednesday sometime in the afternoon.
This is still far out in time, and model guidance consensus has
been shaky over the past few days, so timing is very much up in
the air still. As of now, the greatest chances for thunderstorm
development is Wednesday, as a system pushes a frontal boundary
over the forecast area. We`ll keep monitoring this system and
guidance to see any shifts or better confidence from their
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Valley fog is beginning to form though wont be as widespread as
the previous night. With clouds hanging out over ELM, decided
to keep the tempo as it has slowed cooling. BGM will likely see
some fog reach the hill top later this morning before sunrise
but should not stick around long. A marine layer is pushing
towards AVP but downsloping off the Poconos should keep
scattering out cigs but will be watched just in case MVFR cigs
do make it over. After 12Z, VFR conditions are expected region
wide until late this evening when rain begins to move in from
the west towards 6Z.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday into Tuesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG