-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
158
FXUS61 KBGM 161749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most
will stay dry. Unsettled conditions return later in the day
Friday as another area of low pressure moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
0920 AM Update...

Continue to see clearing from east to west as the broad cloud
shield moves away. Mostly cloudy in the Catskills and Poconos
today thanks to a surface low spinning off the NY/NJ coast. The
rest of the CWA will see partly cloudy skies today with a
slight chance (15%) of an isolated rain shower this afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s west of I-81, with
mid to upper 60s east of I-81 thanks to increased cloud cover.


650 Update...
No changes made to previous forecast.

415 AM Update...

With the partly cloudy skies widespread fog has developed across
the region. Many observations are less than a mile but not many
webcams or observations are showing visibilities below a quarter
mile so an SPS has been issued through the early morning. With
ridging building in, mostly sunny skies will burn off the fog by
around 10 am. Forecast soundings are pretty stable above 15000
feet but given decent low level moisture and sun, there will be
enough instability to get a few shallow isolated showers this
afternoon. Lightning is unlikely as the parcel heights dont get
much above freezing.

Tonight has good conditions for fog development though likely
not be as widespread as this morning depending on how much dry
air can mix into the boundary layer in the afternoon. Rain
chances return Friday as a broad 500 mb shortwave moves into the
Great Lakes. Once again, lift is lacking and there wont be much
instability to get heavier showers and thunderstorms so QPF
amounts Friday afternoon are light and largely below a quarter
inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A large, broad low pressure system over Canada will help
propagate a weak shortwave over our forecast area Saturday,
bringing chances for light rain showers for Saturday. These
showers will likely light enough to cause much accumulation;
likely only a few hundreths to up to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation for Saturday. There won`t be much of a temperature
change since it`s a relatively weak feature; high temperatures
will stay in the 70s for the weekend. After this feature makes
an appearance Saturday, drier conditions are expected for Sunday
with weak ridging building into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Long-term model guidance has finally gained better consensus of
what the weather pattern may look like for early next week. The
aforementioned low in Canada will swing southeastward and into
the Great Lakes heading into the early- to mid-week, seemingly
sweeping a large frontal boundary into the area at the very end
of the long-term forecast period. There are still timing
differences, and for now, this frontal boundary looks relatively
weak with just rain showers, but we`ll keep monitoring latest
guidance for any updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions across the region this afternoon and evening,
except for a passing MVFR deck at BGM this afternoon.

High pressure moves in tonight, which will allow for some
clearing. Another night of patchy fog will be possible in our
river valleys, but there are currently no strong signals for
restrictions at our terminals. While chances are low, ELM seems
to have the best chance for fog to form tonight after 3am. The
big question is if we will get enough clearing to allow fog to
develop, or will it be like last night where we didn`t get a lot
of clearing and the fog failed to reach ELM. Given the lack of
confidence in this, a TEMPO period was used for IFR conditions
from 8-12z.

BGM and RME could have some restrictions in the morning but
guidance, while showing some small chances, isn`t signaling
enough confidence to include this in the TAF. ITH is also in the
same boat, but it looks like winds will be a little too strong
and will mix out any fog formation.

SYR and AVP are expected to be VFR through the TAF period.


Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC