-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
973
FXUS61 KBGM 150739
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will become more numerous overnight into
Wednesday, as an upper wave lifts into the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend, with at least a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, though
there will be dry intervals too.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of late evening, showers have become more widespread across
NE PA and these will continue to advance northward into central
New York heading into the overnight.

With the loss of instability the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the NY Thruway corridor are starting to
decrease in coverage early this evening. These have been very
pulse like early this evening with isolated strong wind gusts.
This threat should remain for another hour or two.

Previous...

However, tonight an upper wave will move in from the southwest
to introduce a little bit of instability aloft. Deeper moisture
along this axis will bring in showers south-to-north areawide
overnight, and embedded elevated thunder cannot totally be
ruled out but nothing strong. The upper wave will stall out
Wednesday morning as it becomes more of a closed low, which will
gradually shift to the east into Wednesday night. Showers will
continue to be abundant Wednesday morning through midday,
before diminishing in coverage in the afternoon. Surface low
will then deepen along the coast, with interior ridging causing
moisture to be shallow with few if any showers Wednesday night.
That said, moisture will indeed remain trapped under the
resultant subsidence inversion to keep clouds around.

Total rainfall this period will generally be just a few tenths
of an inch, though a few spots in Finger Lakes-Thruway counties
could end up with more than a half inch. Orographic upslope of
southeast flow could also help high rainfall amounts to occur in
western Luzerne-southwestern Wyoming Counties.

After lows in the 50s tonight, clouds and showers will hold
temperatures in mainly 60s for highs Wednesday, then 50s again
Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
335 AM Update...

Weak ridging over the area Thursday night through Friday evening
will likely be the only chance for dry conditions through both
the short-term and long-term periods. For Friday, temperatures
will stay warmer in the low- to upper-70s across the forecast
area, before dropping into the mid- to upper-60s Saturday as the
next system brings rain showers into the area. Chances for
thunderstorms, mainly west of I-81, are possible Friday night
through Saturday, but will most likely be non-severe.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
335 AM Update...

Starting Sunday, long-term model guidance is all over the place
with a variety of weak systems moving through the forecast area.
A few models develop weak ridging over the area in the beginning
of the weak, where either dry and overcast conditions or light
rain showers would occur, while others maintain a portion of an
older system over our area with continuous light rain showers.
The biggest consensus between long-term guidance is the
presence of a broad upper-level low over Canada, where it
propagates a larger shortwave either west of our forecast area
or over our area, depending on which model you look at. For now,
chances for light showers will remain for the entire long-term
period, with the lowest chances Sunday night into Monday
morning, but this very well may change due to the high
inconsistency across long- term guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain has moved into southern NY and will progress northward
through the early morning hours. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely at
BGM through mid to late morning though ELM being at lower
elevation will likely stay above LIFR. There is a small chance
of fog developing as the rain moves in between 9Z and 12Z but
not great enough to include in the TAF. AVP will have SE winds
above the surface so that will help keep cigs a little higher
with lower chance of IFR conditions. SYR and RME will see IFR or
worse cigs in the morning through the afternoon tomorrow as rain
develops and persist for much of the day. Cigs gradually improve
late afternoon for BGM, ELM, AVP, and ITH with RME and SYR
keeping lower cigs tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Showers will diminish but clouds will persist
enough for restrictions, though gradual improvement is
anticipated.

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG