-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
269
FXUS61 KBGM 180555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected to move into the area overnight and
last into Saturday afternoon. A stretch of welcomed dry and
warm weather is expected from Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1025 PM Update:

No changes were needed with the late evening update. Previous
discussions below remain valid.

650 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to PoPs the next several hours slowing
down the advancing showers currently over far western parts of
the CWA with drier air still in place farther east and decent
dew point depressions. Thunder chances were also reduced over
the next few hours with little in the way of shear and
instability in place, but kept slight chances in around the
Finger Lakes to near SYR.

Previous Discussion:
A pretty nice spring afternoon across the
area with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. A shortwave trough currently over Michigan will move
into the region later this evening. A plume of deep moisture is
showing up in guidance from the surface to 500mb along the
leading edge of the trough. This will bring rain showers to the
western part of the CWA by mid-evening, spreading from west to
east. This rain will have to battle mid-level dry air currently
over the region so its progression eastward will be slow. Also
slowing the progression will be high pressure building into the
region from Nova Scotia. This allows the surface low to slow to
a crawl as it spins over western NY. This, combined with the ESE
flow from the low spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast pumping
in low level moisture to the region will allow for rain to fall
into the Saturday morning. Rain should taper off starting mid
morning as dry air works its way into the area from the north
and the surface low dissipates. The last of the shower chances
should push south of the area late afternoon. Total rainfall
looks to be between 0.1 and 0,5 inches, with areas west of I-81
seeing the higher totals. Cloudy and cooler on Saturday thanks
to the cloud cover, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the region. Calm conditions last into Saturday night, with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog in
the Twin Tiers and Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
342 PM Update

This period will feature generally quiet weather, with a significant
warming trend. A strengthening upper level ridge moves into the area
on Sunday. The flow in the low and mid levels will be northerly, but
drier air will be advecting over the area. Overall, this should lead
to mostly sunny skies after a few lingering morning clouds.Cannot
rule out a stray shower over the higher elevations, but with
the dry air advecting into the region, kept PoPs below mentionable
levels. With plenty of sunshine expected, highs are progged to
reach well into the 70s, with a few spots near 80. High pressure
remains in control Sunday night, Monday and right into Monday
night. This will continue the stretch of dry and mostly clear
weather. Upper level heights and temperatures continue to rise
over the forecast area as the ridge strengthens. Overall,
humidity levels remain on the lower side, mainly at or below
60F. As surface winds turn light southerly, temperatures are now
forecast to soar into the upper 70s to mid-80s Monday
afternoon, only falling into the 50s to low 60s overnight; these
numbers are about 10-15 degrees above average levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
342 PM Update

This period starts off with another mainly dry day on Tuesday, as
the upper level ridge remains in place over the region. Can`t rule
out a stray afternoon/evening thunderstorm over the Finger Lakes
region, otherwise it will be mostly sunny and very warm. As 850mb
temperatures are progged to reach +15C, daytime highs soar into the
low to mid-80s in for most locations; dew points still in the 50s to
near 60 will keep humidity levels down.

Overall, the latest guidance is slowing the next frontal system down
slightly. This means warmer temperatures could linger longer into the
middle of next week. As the upper level ridge very gradually breaks
down and shifts east, this will open the door for a shortwave
disturbance to kick off some scattered showers and t`storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, with partly sunny skies and
a southerly breeze (6-12 mph) temperature again look to reach the
low to mid-80s over the area. There remain some timing differences
in the latest guidance, but the frontal passage is looking more
likely to be sometime on Thursday now with this forecast update.
Therefore, just out ahead the front temperatures could still reach
the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. The potential is there for higher
levels of shear and instability; with scattered to numerous showers
and t`storms along and ahead of the front expected. By Friday, the
upper level trough should be moving into our area, with cooler
temperatures (back near average) and a low chance for a few rain
showers too.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cigs have been slow to drop to MVFR with the rain at ELM so the
timing of the MVFR cigs have been pushed back. SYR and RME are
on the north end of the rain and with SE flow, VFR conditons
will likely persist over the next 24 hours. ELM and BGM are most
likely to see IFR with ELM seeing heavier precipitation
increasing low level moisture and then BGM will have moist SE
flow that frequently results in IFR cigs especially when it is
raining. ITH and AVP will see rain but cigs stay more elevated
with downslope winds at both terminals.

Tomorrow the rain clears up and cigs raise with VFR conditions
returning at all terminals by around 0Z.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions
from fog is possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible by
Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG