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600
FXUS61 KBGM 151903
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
303 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible
overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas.
Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to
finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be
possible both Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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300 PM Update...

Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this
afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours,
though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes
region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should
be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do
scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain
showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations.
Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is
not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling
into the 50s.

Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to
build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There
will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the
aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will
support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon
hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear,
there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms,
so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be
partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the
region.

The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an
end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into
the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies
will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great
Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The
kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered
over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the
NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will
determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel.
Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the
high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with
the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will
be in the low to mid 70s.

Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the
low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs
as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low
developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air
works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should
limit rain shower chances. Didn`t want to make large wholesale
changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only
recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and
reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend
will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still
be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture
into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the
mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with
warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley.

The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger
ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface
to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM Update...

The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion
on the weather pattern for early next week after several
previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is
progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly
sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as
the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our
region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given
this agreement in models is new, didn`t want to make drastic
changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain
chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the
cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced
PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the
dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or
Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain will clear out from south to north this afternoon and
evening. However, restrictions will stick around through most
of the afternoon. Occasional scattering of clouds may improve
conditions briefly, but other than a short period of VFR at AVP
tonight, restrictions will not lift out until Thursday morning.
Overnight, occasional breaks in the clouds combined with recent
moisture from rain showers will likely lead to fog developing at
all CNY terminals overnight. There is uncertainty on how low
visibilities will drop and how quickly fog develops. Fog should
clear out by around 13z, though MVFR ceilings may linger at
some terminals.

Winds will be light throughout the overnight hours. Northeast
winds Thursday will remain light though some stronger winds will
be possible at BGM and AVP with speeds near 10 kts and peak
gusts around 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJT