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698
FXUS61 KBGM 151338
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
938 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rain
showers and cooler weather through this evening. We begin to dry
out tonight with warmer weather returning for the end of the
week though scattered rain showers will still be possible each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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935 AM Update...

Light rain showers have drifted north as expected this morning.
This rain is light and will not accumulate much. Overall, the
forecast was doing well and needed no changes.

345 AM Update...

With a trough in place today, widespread light rain is expected
for much of the day. Upper level flow is weak providing little
synoptic lift so rainfall rates will be low so QPF amounts are a
quarter inch or less for most of the region. With cold air
aloft, any sunshine that makes it to the surface will quickly
destabilize the atmosphere so rain showers will increase in
coverage into the afternoon.

Tonight, the trough axis moves through with negative vorticity
advection leading to weak subsidence after sunset. With the loss
of day time heating, showers will dissipate quickly outside of
the Catskills and Poconos where terrain could continue to
provide enough lift for showers. Decided to keep some chances of
precipitation going in the Finger Lakes as some models are
indicating an area of surface convergence as high pressure tries
to build in with adequate low level moisture to easily get some
showers going.

Thursday is looking drier and warmer as the broad area of low
pressure continues to meander east. Temperatures aloft will
still be on the cooler side and with low level moisture still in
place, there will be some weak instability that forms. With
broad subsidence under the building ridge, most locations will
be dry but cant rule out a couple of showers or thunderstorms
develop in the afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

Weak ridging over the area Thursday night through Friday evening
will likely be the only chance for dry conditions through both
the short-term and long-term periods. For Friday, temperatures
will stay warmer in the low- to upper-70s across the forecast
area, before dropping into the mid- to upper-60s Saturday as the
next system brings rain showers into the area. Chances for
thunderstorms, mainly west of I-81, are possible Friday night
through Saturday, but will most likely be non-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
335 AM Update...

Starting Sunday, long-term model guidance is all over the place
with a variety of weak systems moving through the forecast area.
A few models develop weak ridging over the area in the beginning
of the weak, where either dry and overcast conditions or light
rain showers would occur, while others maintain a portion of an
older system over our area with continuous light rain showers.
The biggest consensus between long-term guidance is the
presence of a broad upper-level low over Canada, where it
propagates a larger shortwave either west of our forecast area
or over our area, depending on which model you look at. For now,
chances for light showers will remain for the entire long-term
period, with the lowest chances Sunday night into Monday
morning, but this very well may change due to the high
inconsistency across long-term guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain has moved into southern NY and will progress northward
through the early morning hours. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely at
BGM through mid to late morning though ELM being at lower
elevation will likely stay above LIFR. There is a small chance
of fog developing as the rain moves in between 9Z and 12Z but
not great enough to include in the TAF. AVP will have SE winds
above the surface so that will help keep cigs a little higher
with lower chance of IFR conditions. SYR and RME will see IFR or
worse cigs in the morning through the afternoon tomorrow as rain
develops and persist for much of the day. Cigs gradually improve
late afternoon for BGM, ELM, AVP, and ITH with RME and SYR
keeping lower cigs tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Showers will diminish but clouds will persist
enough for restrictions, though gradual improvement is
anticipated.

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG