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323
FXUS61 KBGM 171939
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A pleasant spring afternoon with partly cloudy skies and
seasonable temperatures. Rain showers return this evening as a
low pressure system slowly moves in from the west, lasting into
Saturday afternoon. A stretch of welcomed dry and warm weather
is expected from Sunday into Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

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A pretty nice spring afternoon across the area with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A
shortwave trough currently over Michigan will move into the
region later this evening. A plume of deep moisture is showing
up in guidance from the surface to 500mb along the leading edge
of the trough. This will bring rain showers to the western part
of the CWA by mid-evening, spreading from west to east. This
rain will have to battle mid-level dry air currently over the
region so its progression eastward will be slow. Also slowing
the progression will be high pressure building into the region
from Nova Scotia. This allows the surface low to slow to a crawl
as it spins over western NY. This, combined with the ESE flow
from the low spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast pumping in low
level moisture to the region will allow for rain to fall into
the Saturday morning. Rain should taper off starting mid morning
as dry air works its way into the area from the north and the
surface low dissipates. The last of the shower chances should
push south of the area late afternoon. Total rainfall looks to
be between 0.1 and 0,5 inches, with areas west of I-81 seeing
the higher totals. Cloudy and cooler on Saturday thanks to the
cloud cover, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across the
region. Calm conditions last into Saturday night, with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog in
the Twin Tiers and Catskills.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Remnants of a weak frontal passage may stick around Sunday.
Ridging begins to build into the area Sunday, so it`s more
likely to be very light showers in the morning, with sky cover
decreasing through the day. As ridging slowly strengthens into
Monday, it`ll get warmer and drier with mostly clear skies,
temperatures in the high-70s to low-80s, and low humidity by
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Ridging maintains over our area Tuesday. It`ll be similar to
Monday; low humidity, mostly clear, and temperatures in the
high-70s to low-80s. Some valley areas may even hit mid-80s.
Things begin to get interesting heading into Wednesday. Ridging
begins sliding eastward, making room for the next system to
impact the forecast area Wednesday sometime in the afternoon.
This is still far out in time, and model guidance consensus has
been shaky over the past few days, so timing is very much up in
the air still. As of now, the greatest chances for thunderstorm
development is Wednesday, as a system pushes a frontal boundary
over the forecast area. We`ll keep monitoring this system and
guidance to see any shifts or better confidence from their
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region through this afternoon and into
the evening hours. Rain moves in from the west by mid evening,
bringing MVFR conditions to ELM first, spreading eastward to
BGM/ITH/AVP by the early overnight hours. MVFR conditions are
expected at these terminals through the morning hours. There are
some signals for IFR ceilings at these terminals by the very
early morning hours. ELM currently has the best chance for IFR
ceilings as they will be in the rain and higher moisture airmass
for the longest period. Confidence in IFR ceilings at
ITH/BGM/AVP is not high enough at this time to include in the
TAFs.

SYR and RME will be on the northern fringe of the precipitation,
and with southerly flow, downsloping should keep conditions VFR
through the overnight hours, with MVFR ceilings creeping into
SYR by the morning hours. RME should be VFR through the period
as dry air hangs on here longer and rain showers should be
sparse.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers
but restrictions still possible.

Monday into Tuesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC