-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
326
FXUS61 KBGM 151901
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rain
showers and cooler weather through this evening. We begin to dry
out tonight with warmer weather returning for the end of the
week though scattered rain showers will still be possible each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...

While light, the rain showers today have lead to some higher
accumulations than expected, so one of the changes with this
forecast was an update to the QPF. There is little instability
but the slight chance for thunderstorms was kept in the forecast
over portions of CNY. The other change for this update was for
cloud cover overnight as there may be more clearing than
previously expected. Otherwise, the forecast is still doing well
and needed no additional changes.

935 AM Update...

Light rain showers have drifted north as expected this morning.
This rain is light and will not accumulate much. Overall, the
forecast was doing well and needed no changes.

345 AM Update...

With a trough in place today, widespread light rain is expected
for much of the day. Upper level flow is weak providing little
synoptic lift so rainfall rates will be low so QPF amounts are a
quarter inch or less for most of the region. With cold air
aloft, any sunshine that makes it to the surface will quickly
destabilize the atmosphere so rain showers will increase in
coverage into the afternoon.

Tonight, the trough axis moves through with negative vorticity
advection leading to weak subsidence after sunset. With the loss
of day time heating, showers will dissipate quickly outside of
the Catskills and Poconos where terrain could continue to
provide enough lift for showers. Decided to keep some chances of
precipitation going in the Finger Lakes as some models are
indicating an area of surface convergence as high pressure tries
to build in with adequate low level moisture to easily get some
showers going.

Thursday is looking drier and warmer as the broad area of low
pressure continues to meander east. Temperatures aloft will
still be on the cooler side and with low level moisture still in
place, there will be some weak instability that forms. With
broad subsidence under the building ridge, most locations will
be dry but cant rule out a couple of showers or thunderstorms
develop in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
215 PM Update...

A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great
Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The
kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered
over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the
NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will
determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel.
Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the
high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with
the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will
be in the low to mid 70s.

Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the
low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs
as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low
developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air
works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should
limit rain shower chances. Didn`t want to make large wholesale
changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only
recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and
reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend
will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still
be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture
into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the
mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with
warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley.

The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger
ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface
to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
245 PM Update...

The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion
on the weather pattern for early next week after several
previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is
progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly
sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as
the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our
region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given
this agreement in models is new, didn`t want to make drastic
changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain
chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the
cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced
PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the
dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or
Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain will clear out from south to north this afternoon and
evening. However, restrictions will stick around through most
of the afternoon. Occasional scattering of clouds may improve
conditions briefly, but other than a short period of VFR at AVP
tonight, restrictions will not lift out until Thursday morning.
Overnight, occasional breaks in the clouds combined with recent
moisture from rain showers will likely lead to fog developing at
all CNY terminals overnight. There is uncertainty on how low
visibilities will drop and how quickly fog develops. Fog should
clear out by around 13z, though MVFR ceilings may linger at
some terminals.

Winds will be light throughout the overnight hours. Northeast
winds Thursday will remain light though some stronger winds will
be possible at BGM and AVP with speeds near 10 kts and peak
gusts around 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJT