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233
FXUS61 KBGM 160838
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
438 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most
will stay dry. Unsettled conditions return later in the day
Friday as another area of low pressure moves in from the west.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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415 AM Update...

With the partly cloudy skies widespread fog has developed across
the region. Many observations are less than a mile but not many
webcams or observations are showing visibilities below a quarter
mile so an SPS has been issued through the early morning. With
ridging building in, mostly sunny skies will burn off the fog by
around 10 am. Forecast soundings are pretty stable above 15000
feet but given decent low level moisture and sun, there will be
enough instability to get a few shallow isolated showers this
afternoon. Lightning is unlikely as the parcel heights dont get
much above freezing.

Tonight has good conditions for fog development though likely
not be as widespread as this morning depending on how much dry
air can mix into the boundary layer in the afternoon. Rain
chances return Friday as a broad 500 mb shortwave moves into the
Great Lakes. Once again, lift is lacking and there wont be much
instability to get heavier showers and thunderstorms so QPF
amounts Friday afternoon are light and largely below a quarter
inch.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A large, broad low pressure system over Canada will help
propagate a weak shortwave over our forecast area Saturday,
bringing chances for light rain showers for Saturday. These
showers will likely light enough to cause much accumulation;
likely only a few hundreths to up to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation for Saturday. There won`t be much of a temperature
change since it`s a relatively weak feature; high temperatures
will stay in the 70s for the weekend. After this feature makes
an appearance Saturday, drier conditions are expected for Sunday
with weak ridging building into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Long-term model guidance has finally gained better consensus of
what the weather pattern may look like for early next week. The
aforementioned low in Canada will swing southeastward and into
the Great Lakes heading into the early- to mid-week, seemingly
sweeping a large frontal boundary into the area at the very end
of the long-term forecast period. There are still timing
differences, and for now, this frontal boundary looks relatively
weak with just rain showers, but we`ll keep monitoring latest
guidance for any updates.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Skies are clearing with fog developing in the valleys early this
morning. Pushed back fog development by a couple hours given how
long it was taking for the clouds to clear in the western zones.
RME decided to fog right after the TAFs were out so an amendment
was made and will watch to see if that will become predominant.

ELM will likely fog as soon as the clouds clear so that was
timed based off of the receding clouds. AVP looks to most likely
stay fog free as mid level clouds keep streaming in. Fog will
form at BGM towards 9Z as the fog layer makes its way up to the
hill tops.

Later this morning, the fog evaporates by around 10 am with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z
tonight. There is an extremely small chance of an afternoon
shower so it would be unlucky for a terminal to be impacted.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Only a slight chance of
showers; mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG