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058
FXUS61 KBGM 161847
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
247 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few isolated afternoon rain showers this afternoon but most
will stay dry. Calm and quiet weather under high pressure will
be present tonight through tomorrow morning. Unsettled
conditions return Friday afternoon as another area of low
pressure moves in from the west.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High level cloud clearing earlier today has allowed the sun to
heat the surface and allow some isolated rain showers to develop
this afternoon, mostly east of I-81. Most of these showers are
not reaching the ground, but a few stronger showers are getting
some rain/drizzle to the surface. This tracks given the dewpoint
depression across much of the region is about 15-20 degrees.
These showers will continue to stream from east to west across
the area this afternoon, directed by a low pressure system off
NJ that is pushing ENE flow across the region. Showers will
dissipate later this evening when we loose the surface heating
from the sun.

High pressure will build into the region tonight. With the low
spinning off the coast, the question is how much clearing may we
get with the suppression from the high battling the moisture
and cloud influx from the low. If we can see a few hours of
clearing, fog development will be possible again in the morning.
Guidance is somewhat all over the place with cloud cover, so
confidence is not very high on fog formation late tonight into
the morning hours. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s
across much of the region. Upper 40s will be present in the
higher elevations of t he Catskills.

Friday will start off wonderfully with partly cloudy skies and
temps climbing into the low 70s by noon. A shortwave trough is
expected to move into the region during the afternoon, bringing
rain showers and a slight chance of a rumble of thunder to the
Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers into the evening. The
timing of the showers and how far east they will migrate is
still a little up in the air as the approaching low and
associated rain will have to fight dry air in place over the
region. Steady showers should be in the area by late afternoon,
spreading SW to NE through the overnight hours as the surface
low lifts to the NNE. Showers should lighten up and become more
scattered by daybreak. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
light, with up to 0.15in expected. Highest amounts should be in
the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be warm thanks to continuous
southerly flow, remaining in the upper 50s across much of the
region. Higher elevations of the Catskills will fall into the
low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A large, broad low pressure system over Canada will help
propagate a weak shortwave over our forecast area Saturday,
bringing chances for light rain showers for Saturday. These
showers will likely light enough to cause much accumulation;
likely only a few hundreths to up to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation for Saturday. There won`t be much of a temperature
change since it`s a relatively weak feature; high temperatures
will stay in the 70s for the weekend. After this feature makes
an appearance Saturday, drier conditions are expected for Sunday
with weak ridging building into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Long-term model guidance has finally gained better consensus of
what the weather pattern may look like for early next week. The
aforementioned low in Canada will swing southeastward and into
the Great Lakes heading into the early- to mid-week, seemingly
sweeping a large frontal boundary into the area at the very end
of the long-term forecast period. There are still timing
differences, and for now, this frontal boundary looks relatively
weak with just rain showers, but we`ll keep monitoring latest
guidance for any updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region this afternoon and evening,
except for a passing MVFR deck at BGM this afternoon.

High pressure moves in tonight, which will allow for some
clearing. Another night of patchy fog will be possible in our
river valleys, but there are currently no strong signals for
restrictions at our terminals. While chances are low, ELM seems
to have the best chance for fog to form tonight after 3am. The
big question is if we will get enough clearing to allow fog to
develop, or will it be like last night where we didn`t get a lot
of clearing and the fog failed to reach ELM. Given the lack of
confidence in this, a TEMPO period was used for IFR conditions
from 8-12z.

BGM and RME could have some restrictions in the morning but
guidance, while showing some small chances, isn`t signaling
enough confidence to include this in the TAF. ITH is also in the
same boat, but it looks like winds will be a little too strong
and will mix out any fog formation.

SYR and AVP are expected to be VFR through the TAF period.


Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC