Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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452 FXUS61 KBGM 160628 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 228 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas. Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be possible both Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 930 PM Update... Radar imagery shows rain showers are beginning to dissipate over the region. CAMs suggest a few pop up showers are still possible over the eastern finger lakes region, therefore left chance Pops in the forecast to account for this. Otherwise updated sky grids using satellite imagery as overcast skies remaining over most of the region with a portion of clearing over the twin tiers. Also made minor changes to temperatures and dew points using current observations. Remaining forecast is on track at this time. 630 PM Update... Still some steady rain across Oneida County so increased PoP north of the NYS Thruway through this evening. Latest model guidance and forecast soundings are showing minimal clearing tonight in the cloud cover, with abundant low level moisture in place and stationary front draped over Central NY. May even see some pocket of very light rain or drizzle overnight near the vicinity of the front over Central NY. 300 PM Update... Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours, though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations. Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling into the 50s. Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear, there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms, so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the region. The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours. Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 215 PM Update... A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel. Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should limit rain shower chances. Didn`t want to make large wholesale changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley. The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 245 PM Update... The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion on the weather pattern for early next week after several previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given this agreement in models is new, didn`t want to make drastic changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Skies are clearing with fog developing in the valleys early this morning. Pushed back fog development by a couple hours given how long it was taking for the clouds to clear in the western zones. RME decided to fog right after the TAFs were out so an amendment was made and will watch to see if that will become predominant. ELM will likely fog as soon as the clouds clear so that was timed based off of the receding clouds. AVP looks to most likely stay fog free as mid level clouds keep streaming in. Fog will form at BGM towards 9Z as the fog layer makes its way up to the hill tops. Later this morning, the fog evaporates by around 10 am with VFR conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z tonight. There is an extremely small chance of an afternoon shower so it would be unlucky for a terminal to be impacted. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers; mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions. Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible. Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL/ES/MPK SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG