238
FXUS61 KBGM 141923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers this afternoon, with isolated
thunder mainly in Central New York, will become more numerous
tonight into Wednesday areawide as an upper wave lifts into the
region. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
with at least a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
most days, though there will be dry intervals too.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...
Main concern in the very near term is for a few non-severe yet
gusty storm cells in the Finger Lakes to NY Thruway Counties
this afternoon. Otherwise, a generally showery period is
anticipated tonight through Wednesday yet with little real
impact other than disappointing those who have outdoor plans.

Weak convergence zone is now firing up a few convective cells in
the Finger Lakes, which will carry across the NY Thruway
counties for the remainder of the afternoon. Inverted-V
profiles evident in lowest 5000 feet of model soundings, so
despite limited shear and only modest instability, there could
be localized yet subsevere gusts mixing to the surface
underneath cells thanks to those steep low level lapse rates.
South of this area, thunder is not expected this afternoon
because instability will be insufficient, though spotty showers
could occur.

However, tonight an upper wave will move in from the southwest
to introduce a little bit of instability aloft. Deeper moisture
along this axis will bring in showers south-to-north areawide
overnight, and embedded elevated thunder cannot totally be
ruled out but nothing strong. The upper wave will stall out
Wednesday morning as it becomes more of a closed low, which will
gradually shift to the east into Wednesday night. Showers will
continue to be abundant Wednesday morning through midday,
before diminishing in coverage in the afternoon. Surface low
will then deepen along the coast, with interior ridging causing
moisture to be shallow with few if any showers Wednesday night.
That said, moisture will indeed remain trapped under the
resultant subsidence inversion to keep clouds around.

Total rainfall this period will generally be just a few tenths
of an inch, though a few spots in Finger Lakes-Thruway counties
could end up with more than a half inch. Orographic upslope of
southeast flow could also help high rainfall amounts to occur in
western Luzerne-southwestern Wyoming Counties.

After lows in the 50s tonight, clouds and showers will hold
temperatures in mainly 60s for highs Wednesday, then 50s again
Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A low pressure system spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
bring isolated showers to the region Thursday. A high pressure
system over Nova Scotia will keep the low from progressing
north, keeping easterly winds across the area through the
period. A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels poking
into the region will help suppress some rain/thunder
development on Thursday, but orographic lift over the Catskills
and higher elevations in CNY will help generate some afternoon
showers, especially east of I-81.

The low will drift to the SE Thursday night, with high pressure
becoming more in control. Temps will fall into the 50s, with low
50s in the higher elevations and upper 50s in the usual warmer
valleys.

Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes
Friday morning, slowly tracking to the ENE as the day
progresses. Lingering high pressure slowly sliding eastward
should keep rain out of the region until at least the late
afternoon hours. Guidance is still unsure on when rain will
start to move into the region from the west, but we should see
widely scattered rain showers by the late evening east west of
I-81 by the late evening/early overnight hours. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 50s thanks to cloud cover and a
moist airmass overhead.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 PM Update...

The trough will move out of the Great Lakes Saturday, lifting to
the NE and tilting slightly negative through the day, keeping
scattered rain showers overhead into the evening hours.
Continued easterly flow will keep temperatures cool Saturday,
with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s.  After
Saturday evening, guidance diverges greatly. The GFS and
Canadian have a very well defined cutoff low in the mid and
upper levels moving eastward out of the Ohio River valley into
the Mid- Atlantic. This keeps most of the rain south of our area
but does allow for isolated showers to develop Sunday. The Euro
is much slower to push the trough that brought showers on
Saturday through the region, allowing lingering rain showers to
remain Sunday. The cutoff mid-level low moving into the Ohio
River valley is absent in the Euro, with a low much farther
north in Canada moving through the souther Hudson Bay and
another weaker one developing across the SE US. Given the
widely differing solutions between the GFS/Euro deterministic
and ensembles, NBM guidance was relied upon for Sunday and
Monday`s forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSYR and perhaps KRME may get a gusty shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon, as an axis of instability generates some cells.
Otherwise VFR conditions will continue this afternoon until an
upper wave advances into the region tonight. This wave will
cause increasing showers and thickening clouds overnight, with
ceilings lowering into fuel alternate levels; some terminals
even IFR. The upper wave will persist as low pressure also
develops near the coast Wednesday; this will keep restrictions
going through the morning. Initial southwest flow this afternoon
will back to southeasterly tonight into Wednesday in response to
that developing low near the coast.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through night...Showers will diminish but
clouds will persist enough for restrictions, though gradual
improvement is anticipated.

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MDP