-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
976
FXUS61 KBGM 150550
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
150 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will become more numerous overnight into
Wednesday, as an upper wave lifts into the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend, with at least a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, though
there will be dry intervals too.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of late evening, showers have become more widespread across
NE PA and these will continue to advance northward into central
New York heading into the overnight.

With the loss of instability the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the NY Thruway corridor are starting to
decrease in coverage early this evening. These have been very
pulse like early this evening with isolated strong wind gusts.
This threat should remain for another hour or two.

Previous...

However, tonight an upper wave will move in from the southwest
to introduce a little bit of instability aloft. Deeper moisture
along this axis will bring in showers south-to-north areawide
overnight, and embedded elevated thunder cannot totally be
ruled out but nothing strong. The upper wave will stall out
Wednesday morning as it becomes more of a closed low, which will
gradually shift to the east into Wednesday night. Showers will
continue to be abundant Wednesday morning through midday,
before diminishing in coverage in the afternoon. Surface low
will then deepen along the coast, with interior ridging causing
moisture to be shallow with few if any showers Wednesday night.
That said, moisture will indeed remain trapped under the
resultant subsidence inversion to keep clouds around.

Total rainfall this period will generally be just a few tenths
of an inch, though a few spots in Finger Lakes-Thruway counties
could end up with more than a half inch. Orographic upslope of
southeast flow could also help high rainfall amounts to occur in
western Luzerne-southwestern Wyoming Counties.

After lows in the 50s tonight, clouds and showers will hold
temperatures in mainly 60s for highs Wednesday, then 50s again
Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A low pressure system spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
bring isolated showers to the region Thursday. A high pressure
system over Nova Scotia will keep the low from progressing
north, keeping easterly winds across the area through the
period. A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels poking
into the region will help suppress some rain/thunder
development on Thursday, but orographic lift over the Catskills
and higher elevations in CNY will help generate some afternoon
showers, especially east of I-81.

The low will drift to the SE Thursday night, with high pressure
becoming more in control. Temps will fall into the 50s, with low
50s in the higher elevations and upper 50s in the usual warmer
valleys.

Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes
Friday morning, slowly tracking to the ENE as the day
progresses. Lingering high pressure slowly sliding eastward
should keep rain out of the region until at least the late
afternoon hours. Guidance is still unsure on when rain will
start to move into the region from the west, but we should see
widely scattered rain showers by the late evening east west of
I-81 by the late evening/early overnight hours. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 50s thanks to cloud cover and a
moist airmass overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM Update...

The trough will move out of the Great Lakes Saturday, lifting to
the NE and tilting slightly negative through the day, keeping
scattered rain showers overhead into the evening hours.
Continued easterly flow will keep temperatures cool Saturday,
with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s.  After
Saturday evening, guidance diverges greatly. The GFS and
Canadian have a very well defined cutoff low in the mid and
upper levels moving eastward out of the Ohio River valley into
the Mid- Atlantic. This keeps most of the rain south of our area
but does allow for isolated showers to develop Sunday. The Euro
is much slower to push the trough that brought showers on
Saturday through the region, allowing lingering rain showers to
remain Sunday. The cutoff mid-level low moving into the Ohio
River valley is absent in the Euro, with a low much farther
north in Canada moving through the souther Hudson Bay and
another weaker one developing across the SE US. Given the
widely differing solutions between the GFS/Euro deterministic
and ensembles, NBM guidance was relied upon for Sunday and
Monday`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain has moved into southern NY and will progress northward
through the early morning hours. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely at
BGM through mid to late morning though ELM being at lower
elevation will likely stay above LIFR. There is a small chance
of fog developing as the rain moves in between 9Z and 12Z but
not great enough to include in the TAF. AVP will have SE winds
above the surface so that will help keep cigs a little higher
with lower chance of IFR conditions. SYR and RME will see IFR or
worse cigs in the morning through the afternoon tomorrow as rain
develops and persist for much of the day. Cigs gradually improve
late afternoon for BGM, ELM, AVP, and ITH with RME and SYR
keeping lower cigs tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Showers will diminish but clouds will persist
enough for restrictions, though gradual improvement is
anticipated.

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers;
mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG