703
FXUS63 KGLD 172311
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible along and north of I-70
  Saturday evening/night. Severe weather is not expected.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and
  damaging winds are possible over portions of northwest Kansas
  and southwest Nebraska on Sunday, mainly during the late
  aft/eve. Thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential
  increase with eastern extent into central Kansas. In other
  words, areas located along and east of Highway 283 appear to
  be most at-risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Overview: Expect a transition to a more active pattern over the
weekend.. in association with increasingly cyclonic flow
/troughing/ aloft over the western CONUS. In this particular
synoptic pattern.. a pattern in which two distinct /northern and
southern stream/ branches of the upper level jet will
intermingle/interact.. confidence in forecast specifics is well
below average.

Sat-Sun AM: Southern stream shortwave energy anticipated to
move ashore the southern CA coast late tonight and Sat morning
will track ENE across the 4-Corners (Sat eve-night) and Central
Plains (Sun morning). High-res guidance (e.g. HRRR, NAM NEST)
indicates that this feature may aid in, or enhance, the
development of scattered convection along the CO Front Range and
Palmer Divide (late Sat aft-eve) and portions of the Tri-State
area (Sat eve-night), mainly along/north of I-70.. though
solutions vary significantly with regard to convective coverage
and duration. Either way, severe weather is not anticipated with
convection in this time-frame.

Sun PM-Sun night: Challenging forecast. From a pattern
recognition standpoint, a few things stand out, the most notable
of which being: [1] a lack of strong/focused upper forcing, [2]
the presence of a broad/weak lee cyclone and [3] a potential
for ongoing (or antecedent) convection over portions of the area
Sunday morning.. the latter of which could significantly alter
environmental conditions over the Tri-State area (esp. in a
pattern characterized by a weak, ill-consolidated MSLP-H85
height gradient). Prior experience in similar patterns advises a
considerable amount of caution with regard to confidently
ascertaining specific aspects of convective development,
coverage, evolution and hazards. Broadly speaking, guidance
continues to indicate that convective coverage and severe
weather potential increase with eastern extent into central KS.
In other words, locations along/east of Highway 283 appear to be
most at-risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

For the long term, we are looking at daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms to move across portions of the Tri-State area.
Monday currently has the best chance, despite low to medium
confidence, for strong to severe thunderstorms across the
forecast area. While an upper trough digs south over the Western
CONUS, a surface low is expected to develop over Southwest
Kansas Monday. Instability is expected to increase during the
late afternoon/evening hours, which is the peak time for us to
expect severe weather. Isolated storms may develop ahead of a
potential MCS during the evening hours. Should the trend of an
MCS continue, heavy rain and flooding would be a concern given
the potential for rain over the next two days. As mentioned in
the previous discussion widespread flooding is not anticipated
given the Corfidi Vectors; however, localized flooding could
occur.

For the remainder of the week, the upper trough will move east
across the Central CONUS and up towards the Great Lakes by
Thursday as nearly zonal flow sets up over the southern half of
the country. As stated earlier, rain and storm chances continue
each afternoon/evening as disturbances travel along the main
upper level trough. There is currently low confidence in a
severe threat for the remainder of the week but the exact
location, timing, and any specific hazards are to far out to say
with enough certainty at this time.

Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are
anticipated next week. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be
in the upper 70s to 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. A cold front passing through now on Tuesday will cool
things off slightly with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the
upper 30s to 40s. Wednesday through Friday sees a very gradual
warm up across the area as temperatures return to the mid 70s to
lower 80s by Friday. Overnight lows each of those nights will
be in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites,
however LLWS is expected again tonight at both sites. As the
inversion sets up, near surface winds will remain around 10 to
15 kts while a low level jet develops a few hundred feet above
the surface with speeds around 40kts. A front is then forecast
to move in around 07-10Z that will shift surface and near
surface winds to out of the northwest. The LLWS may briefly
abate as the winds shift in direction, but should return and
linger until around 14Z. Near surface winds will also be around
15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts when the front passes through.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK