Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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487 FXUS63 KGLD 151852 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1252 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%) continue today and tonight. - Dry weather Thursday through the day Saturday with warming temperatures. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis is forecast to slowly move through the area through the period. A blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts suggest a mid level dry slot will cover much of the area today with slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms across western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado tonight. Even with slightly better moisture available from 850-700mb, there isnt much lift despite some weak instability and modest low level lapse rates. All in all, we`ll have 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms for various parts of the forecast area today and tonight. The threat for severe weather looks rather low. Its possible a storm or two could have hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph but confidence in that is rather low. If that were to happen, it would be during the time of peak heating through about sunset. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Thursday-Thursday night...the above mentioned area of sufficient moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the far western/southwestern parts of the forecast area Wednesday will slide to the southeast during the day, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms across Greeley and Wichita counties with dry weather for the entire area during the night. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging moves into the area ahead of an upper level trough moving into the northern plains. The associated 850mb thermal ridge moves over the area, supporting high temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area during the night and could support 20% chances for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Little has changed from the previous forecast, still looking at generally warmer temperatures and shots at showers and storms Saturday through Tuesday. The period begins with northerly flow as a heavily tilted ridge erodes and moves out to the east, bringing zonal flow to the area by Sunday. As the ridge moves out of the area, it could serve as enough of a forcing mechanism to fire off some brief showers and storms Saturday evening. PoPs are highest in the central and eastern CWA, topping out around 20%. Sunday afternoon and evening, a weak shortwave is showing up on guidance. This will give us another chance at seeing some showers and storms, mainly in the northeastern CWA where moisture will be more available. PoPs are currently around 20-30% for Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday, is a bit more interesting; around the 18Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday timeframe, a trough looks to work into the area and will give us our best chance at showers and storms in the long-term. A low pressure system in Canada is expected to extend a trough into the Central High Plains, but timing and intensity are still a bit of a question. The GFS is more aggressive than the GEFS mean, ECMWF, and CMC-NH, but all three do show similar overall features. This will also be our highest likelihood of severe weather in the long-term, although this far out, hazards are pretty vague. These showers and storms could linger through a good portion of Tuesday, too. Behind this trough, another ridge builds in from the southwest through Wednesday night. Behind that ridge is a strong low pressure system that looks to impact the region near the end of next workweek. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the period. The days with rain will be in the mid 70s to low 80s and days without rain will be in the 80s, potentially low 90s. Overnight temperatures look to stay persistent, too. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds are expected to decrease slightly this afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable tonight. Mid-level clouds will be possible this afternoon, with some upper level clouds in the evening. There will be a chance of some showers and storms in the vicinity of the terminals, however, confidence in locations is low at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Wekesser