Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
140 FXUS63 KGLD 161959 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 159 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tranquil weather with rising temperatures today through Saturday. - A low pressure system anticipated to develop in the lee of the Rockies late this weekend may bring severe weather to portions of the Central Plains on Sunday May 19. - Unsettled pattern with daily potential for showers/storms expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Overview: Both the northern and southern stream branches of the upper level jet will be well-removed from the Tri-State area in this period.. as an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest extends northeastward over the Central Plains. Expect benign weather and a warming trend, with well-above average temperatures on Friday.. when highs may approach 90F over much of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Active weather is anticipated from the latter half of the upcoming weekend through much of next week.. as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft becomes established over the western CONUS. Guidance indicates a rather complicated flow pattern characterized by varying degrees of interaction/phasing between two distinct (northern and southern stream) branches of the upper level jet. In such a pattern, confidence in forecast specifics is well below average. Broadly speaking, one would expect an increased potential for convection.. and episodic severe weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Mostly clear skies /VFR conditions/ will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Light and variable winds will prevail today. Winds will shift to the S-SSW at 10-15 knots overnight.. veering to the SW-WSW at 15-20 knots late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent