775
FXUS63 KGLD 150848
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
248 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible Wednesday through early Thursday morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday through
  Monday, with a risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, expect temperatures to climb into
the 80s in most locations.  A boundary has set up, extending from
Trenton, Nebraska to Goodland, Kansas to Kit Carson, Colorado.  This
can be seen on visible satellite and faintly on radar.  A couple of
storms have developed near the boundary in eastern Colorado. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the next several hours, moving
west to east.  Models are showing the potential for two rounds of
thunderstorm activity.  The first round will move through the area
this afternoon and could produce some strong to severe
thunderstorms.  The main concerns will be hail and wind; however, a
landspout may also be possible near the boundary.  The second
potential wave of storms will move through late this evening into
early tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, an upper trough moves into the region.  Cooler
temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid-70s.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  There is
a chance that a few areas could get some decent precipitation out of
them.

Thursday, a few lingering chances for rain will be possible in the
morning.  There may be a few isolated showers or storms in the
afternoon, mainly for areas south of the interstate.  Temperatures
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday, a pattern change will bring dry weather to the region.
Westerly flow will set up over the region as a broad upper trough
moves in from the PACNW to the Dakotas.  High temperatures are
currently expected to be in the 80s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Main concern during this period will be chances for thunderstorms,
with a risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday.

Cold front moves through early Saturday morning with post
frontal upslope regime by Saturday afternoon. Scattered storms
will develop in eastern Colorado, but instability is very
limited and will probably only see a few isolated showers or
storms from the remnants Saturday night. By Sunday, will see
fairly decent low level moisture return which results in
moderate instability by the afternoon. Models show a surface
trough/dry line near the Kansas/Colorado border at 18z that
rapidly moves east in the afternoon. There is a weak wave moving
through the southwest flow aloft which will probably be enough
to initiate convection on the trough/dry line. Eastern areas
appear to be the favored area in the latest model runs for
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe with deep layer shear
of around 40 kts in addition to the instability. On Monday a
cold front enters the area and will be the focus for convection.
A stronger upper level shortwave will also add additional lift.
Moderate instability is forecast along/ahead of the front and
deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts, setting the stage
for another risk of severe storms with all modes possible given
those parameters and a sharp frontal boundary. May get a break
from the convection on Tuesday with a shortwave ridge moving in
and little to no instability currently forecast.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs
mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions through 15z then brief MVFR
ceilings through 22z. There could be a few light showers
through 08z without impact to the terminal. Winds,
light/variable through 12z, then northerly 10-5kts. Gusts to
20kts from 15z-22z.

For KMCK, light showers could impact the terminal through 14z,
along with the potential for MVFR fog down to 3sm and BKN030.
From 18z Wednesday onward, VCTS is possible. Winds, light/
variable through 14z, then north around 10-15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN