615
FXUS63 KGLD 140416
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1016 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canada may impact the Tri-State area through
  Tuesday. Those with respiratory concerns are encouraged to
  keep a watchful eye on air quality levels.

- Summer-like temperatures are expected Tuesday, with widespread
  80s expected.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Tuesday/Wednesday and again Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, an upper trough will continue
to move to the east, with the western part of the Tri-State area
coming under northerly flow. Expected afternoon high
temperatures will be primarily in the 70s. Visible satellite
imagery shows a few cumulus clouds moving across the region.
There is a small, non-zero chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm popping up this afternoon in the eastern part of
the area. Northerly winds have been transporting smoke from
fires in Canada into the region. Those with respiratory concerns
will want to be mindful of conditions over the next day and a
half as the HRRR shows the potential of smoke staying in the
region.

Tuesday, northwesterly to westerly flow will be set up over the
region. Expected high temperatures will be reminiscent of early
summer, reaching the low to mid-80s across most areas. At least
for the morning hours, dry conditions are expected. There will
also be a chance of some smoke from Canada impacting the area.
Heading into the afternoon, an upper trough drops south into
northern Utah and Colorado. There will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon. At this point in
time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday evening, a cold front is expected to move into the
region. This will bring in some cooler air to the region. This
should also help clear out some of the smoke.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday,
bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. There
is a possibility that any thunderstorms that develop will
produce heavy rain, which may result in some localized water
issues.

Thursday, the trough will exit the region, and the area will
come under northwest flow on Friday. Expected high temperatures
will be in the 70s Thursday.

Expect a warm up on Friday with the northwest flow in place,
ahead of our next system. High temperatures Friday will be in
the 80s. A few low 90s will be possible for an area along and
east of a line from McCook to Colby to Tribune. Periodic showers
and storms will be possible over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Sub-VFR conditions are possible in association with scattered
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon and evening (~22-03Z). Guidance
suggests a relatively greater potential for convection at the
GLD terminal (compared to MCK), though.. confidence in
convective coverage and location is below average. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds will prevail overnight.. shifting to the S
and increasing to 10-15 knots late Tuesday morning. At GLD,
south winds will weaken and become variable during the
afternoon. At MCK, a southerly breeze may persist through the
majority of the afternoon.. becoming variable AOA sunset Tuesday
evening. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of
any showers/storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Vincent