003
FXUS63 KGLD 140910
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
310 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES..

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through
  sunset.

- Continued chances (20%-50%) for showers/thunderstorms
  Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Overall coverage of showers/thunderstorms remains low Thursday
  then Saturday night, Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Today-tonight...a subtle shortwave within/ahead of a broader upper
level trough is forecast to emerge off the Colorado front range and
into the forecast area this afternoon, supporting 20%-50% chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Primary hazards this afternoon/early
evening will be wind gusts to 60 mph and perhaps some hail up to 1"
in diameter. As this feature continues slowly east overnight there
will be 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms associated
with it, mainly north of a line from Yuma to Hill City. Yuma county
remains in a slight chance for precipitation due to a bit of an
increase in mid level moisture and lift ahead of the main upper
trough axis.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s with
low temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative
humidity forecasts are generally in agreement with better moisture
for showers and thunderstorms across the far western/southwestern
parts of the forecast area during the day as the upper trough axis
approaches the area. For now, have limited pops up to 30% for
counties surrounding our neighboring offices. Overnight, NAM/ECMWF
850-500mb moisture and qpf remain across the far southwestern parts
of the area while the GFS remains the boldest in producing higher
pops (30%-50%) across the area, highest south of I-70.

High temperatures wont be as warm with readings in the upper 60s to
middle 70s. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night...we`ll continue to have 20%-30% chances for
rainfall during the day as the upper trough axis takes its time
moving through the area with NAM/GFS showing sufficient moisture
from 850-500mb for some light qpf. Overnight, a lack of moisture
behind the upper trough suggests a dry forecast across the area. NBM
paints some 20% pops across Yuma county for some reason. Will keep
it in the forecast to match up with neighbors and wouldnt be
surprised if its removed in later forecasts.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s with
low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Will start the period warm and dry under shortwave ridging on
Friday. Shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies on
Saturday and into the northern plains, potentially sending a
cold front down the plains and into the area. However, models in
poor agreement on whether or not that will happen. There is
some weak instability for any potential front to work with but
overall shear is also rather weak. So, at worst might see a few
isolated storms along any potential frontal boundary Saturday
afternoon/evening.

For Sunday and Monday, will start a prolonged period of
southwest flow ahead of a deep trough which will be slow to
move out of the southwest/Four Corners region. Occasional
shortwave energy will be ejected from the trough axis and into
the central plains providing synoptic scale lift for convection.
Deep layer shear will be around 50 kts both days. Instability
is forecast to be rather limited on Sunday which may negate any
severe weather chances, but potentially better on Monday with a
dry line and front at the surface and well-defined upper wave.
However, confidence at seven days out in those kind of details
remains low.

Temperatures through the long term period change very little,
with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Sub-VFR conditions are possible in association with scattered
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon and evening (~22-03Z). Guidance
suggests a relatively greater potential for convection at the
GLD terminal (compared to MCK), though.. confidence in
convective coverage and location is below average. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds will prevail overnight.. shifting to the S
and increasing to 10-15 knots late Tuesday morning. At GLD,
south winds will weaken and become variable during the
afternoon. At MCK, a southerly breeze may persist through the
majority of the afternoon.. becoming variable AOA sunset Tuesday
evening. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of
any showers/storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...BV