487
FXUS63 KGLD 151852
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%)
  continue today and tonight.

- Dry weather Thursday through the day Saturday with warming
  temperatures.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis is forecast to slowly
move through the area through the period. A blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF
850-500mb relative humidity forecasts suggest a mid level dry slot
will cover much of the area today with slightly better chances for
showers and thunderstorms across western Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties in Colorado tonight. Even with slightly better moisture
available from 850-700mb, there isnt much lift despite some weak
instability and modest low level lapse rates. All in all, we`ll have
20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms for various parts of
the forecast area today and tonight. The threat for severe
weather looks rather low. Its possible a storm or two could have
hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph but confidence in
that is rather low. If that were to happen, it would be during
the time of peak heating through about sunset. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low
temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.


Thursday-Thursday night...the above mentioned area of sufficient
moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the far western/southwestern
parts of the forecast area Wednesday will slide to the southeast
during the day, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms across
Greeley and Wichita counties with dry weather for the entire area
during the night. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper
70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging moves into the area ahead
of an upper level trough moving into the northern plains. The
associated 850mb thermal ridge moves over the area, supporting high
temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. There is a bit of moisture
in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area during the night and
could support 20% chances for showers/thunderstorms. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Little has changed from the previous forecast, still looking at
generally warmer temperatures and shots at showers and storms
Saturday through Tuesday.

The period begins with northerly flow as a heavily tilted ridge
erodes and moves out to the east, bringing zonal flow to the area by
Sunday. As the ridge moves out of the area, it could serve as enough
of a forcing mechanism to fire off some brief showers and storms
Saturday evening. PoPs are highest in the central and eastern CWA,
topping out around 20%.

Sunday afternoon and evening, a weak shortwave is showing up on
guidance. This will give us another chance at seeing some showers
and storms, mainly in the northeastern CWA where moisture will be
more available. PoPs are currently around 20-30% for Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Monday, is a bit more interesting; around the 18Z Monday to 12Z
Tuesday timeframe, a trough looks to work into the area and will
give us our best chance at showers and storms in the long-term. A
low pressure system in Canada is expected to extend a trough into
the Central High Plains, but timing and intensity are still a bit of
a question. The GFS is more aggressive than the GEFS mean, ECMWF, and
CMC-NH, but all three do show similar overall features. This will
also be our highest likelihood of severe weather in the long-term,
although this far out, hazards are pretty vague. These showers and
storms could linger through a good portion of Tuesday, too.

Behind this trough, another ridge builds in from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Behind that ridge is a strong low pressure
system that looks to impact the region near the end of next workweek.

Temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the period.
The days with rain will be in the mid 70s to low 80s and days
without rain will be in the 80s, potentially low 90s. Overnight
temperatures look to stay persistent, too. Lows will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
are expected to decrease slightly this afternoon, with winds
becoming light and variable tonight. Mid-level clouds will be
possible this afternoon, with some upper level clouds in the
evening. There will be a chance of some showers and storms in
the vicinity of the terminals, however, confidence in locations
is low at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Wekesser