Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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236 FXUS63 KGLD 152242 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 442 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe. - Dry weather is expected for most areas Thursday through Saturday. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 A weak cold front continues to move through the region today. Expect slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low to mid-70s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe. The primary hazards with any storms would be hail to the size of quarters and winds gusting as high as 55mph. Showers and storms should taper off for most areas by midnight. The upper ridge continues to move across the region through the day Thursday. Light winds from the north will shift to the south/southeast in the afternoon. Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are expected. Highs are currently forecasted to reach the mid to upper 70s. A few 80s cannot be entirely ruled out. Lows will range from the mid-40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Little has changed from the previous forecast, still looking at generally warmer temperatures and shots at showers and storms Saturday through Tuesday. The period begins with northerly flow as a heavily tilted ridge erodes and moves out to the east, bringing zonal flow to the area by Sunday. As the ridge moves out of the area, it could serve as enough of a forcing mechanism to fire off some brief showers and storms Saturday evening. PoPs are highest in the central and eastern CWA, topping out around 20%. Sunday afternoon and evening, a weak shortwave is showing up on guidance. This will give us another chance at seeing some showers and storms, mainly in the northeastern CWA where moisture will be more available. PoPs are currently around 20-30% for Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday, is a bit more interesting; around the 18Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday timeframe, a trough looks to work into the area and will give us our best chance at showers and storms in the long-term. A low pressure system in Canada is expected to extend a trough into the Central High Plains, but timing and intensity are still a bit of a question. The GFS is more aggressive than the GEFS mean, ECMWF, and CMC-NH, but all three do show similar overall features. This will also be our highest likelihood of severe weather in the long-term, although this far out, hazards are pretty vague. These showers and storms could linger through a good portion of Tuesday, too. Behind this trough, another ridge builds in from the southwest through Wednesday night. Behind that ridge is a strong low pressure system that looks to impact the region near the end of next workweek. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the period. The days with rain will be in the mid 70s to low 80s and days without rain will be in the 80s, potentially low 90s. Overnight temperatures look to stay persistent, too. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 440 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for both terminals. There is a low chance for vcts this evening, but with low confidence have left out of forecast and will monitor. Winds, north around 10kts through 05z Thursday, then light/variable. Between 14z-17z, southwesterly flow ensues for both terminals around 10kts, becoming south around 20z-21z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wekesser LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...JN