785
FXUS63 KGLD 130900
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for showers/thunderstorms is Tuesday afternoon
  through Thursday morning.

- Monitoring potential for near critical fire weather conditions
  across much of the area Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Today-tonight...the center of a vertically stacked low pressure
system was over south central Kansas early this morning. Through the
morning hours, there will be a 20%-30% chance for light rain showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms east of a line from Norton to Gove
due to wraparound moisture. During the afternoon hours, the forecast
area is expected to be dry. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower to upper 70s, a mix of 850mb temperatures from the
NAM/GFS/UKMET and better performing temperature guidance from the
past several days. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
to upper 40s. Breezy northerly winds are anticipated today with
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...an approaching upper level trough will bring
increasing moisture in the 700-500mb layer into the area during the
afternoon hours. This moisture, combined with some instability and
sufficient low and mid level lapse rates will support 20%-40%
chances for showers and thunderstorms along and west of Highway 25.
During the overnight hours, shower/thunderstorm chances increase
into the 40%-70% range, mainly before midnight. High temperatures
rise into the upper 70s to middle 80s with low temperatures in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, there is a 40%-50% chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the upper trough axis
approaches from the northwest. Looking at GFS/ECMWF/NAM 850-500mb
relative humidity forecasts and qpf, the GFS is the wetter of the
three but still doesnt quite support such high pops. The NAM/ECMWF
models are much drier with a dry slot over the area. If trends
continue, pops will need to be lowered more than I have already done
(removed likely mention where NBM loaded it). Overnight, the
NAM/ECMWF models keep any appreciable moisture in the 850-500mb
layer east and west of us while the GFS brings a wetter layer into
the area. Presently, there is a 20%-50% chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures are anticipated to be in the middle
60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to around
50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Relatively quiet pattern on tap for mid May. While there will be
occasional low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms,
severe storms are not anticipated due to lack of any strong
forcing. One system will track across the southern plains
Thursday and Friday, while another one slowly develops in the
Great Basin over the weekend. The local area will see shortwave
ridging to begin the period which then transitions to southwest
flow ahead of the western system over the weekend. Precipitation
chances will mainly be tied to weak waves in the southwest flow
and daytime heating toward the latter parts of the long term
period.

Temperatures will be near normal to start the period, but warm
to above normal over the weekend. The warmest day will be
Saturday with mid to upper 80s currently forecast. Do not
expect any frost or freeze problems during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

A period of sub-VFR ceilings is possible at the MCK terminal
overnight into Monday morning, otherwise.. VFR conditions are
anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals.
Winds will remain light and variable overnight.. becoming
northerly at 10-15 knots Monday morning and persisting into the
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable during the late
afternoon and early evening.. near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...BV