450
FXUS63 KGLD 120731
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
131 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Run of the mill showers tonight, mainly along and south of
  Interstate 70.

- Numerous showers and storms are expected on Sunday, beginning
  during the early afternoon and ending from west to east
  Sunday night and Monday morning. A few severe storms capable
  of producing quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph
  are possible, mainly in northwest Kansas between 2-8 PM MDT
  Sunday.

- Average rainfall amounts today through Monday near 0.50" to
  1.25", highest south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs.

- Unsettled pattern will continue to support a chances for
  showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

This afternoon, a 500 mb low pressure system over the western
Rockies is starting to influence the CWA and showers are moving
in from the southwest. These showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue into the night with spotty coverage. The
threat for severe weather is very low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks
to be limited to around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is
about 15-20 kts or less. The SPC has placed the extreme
southwestern portion of the CWA is in a marginal ERO, however
there is less than 5% confidence that flooding will occur today.

Tomorrow will have more widespread precipitation, stronger
storms, although no severe weather parameters look very
impressive. An 850 mb lee low is expected to form in the very
early morning hours Sunday and move across the CWA in the mid-
day as the 500 mb low moves over Colorado to the east. Supplied
with a 20-35 kts LLJ that is expected to start up around 3-6Z
tonight, we will have plenty of moisture to work with throughout
the day Sunday. This which does cause some concern for flooding
potential Sunday when we have another marginal ERO in the far
southeastern CWA. However, due to little rainfall over the
previous week, soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a
little fast for flooding), and the types of storm formation
expected, there is only about 5-10% confidence flooding would
occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly elevated
freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not make
it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD
shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible
(~5-10% chance). If severe weather were to occur, it would
likely be winds near 60 MPH and a few isolated 1" hailstones.

The HRRR has been doing a pretty good job with today`s showers,
so timing will be based on the 12Z and 18Z HRRR. The surface
low looks to move into the western CWA around 14Z and slowly
move to the east. The will cause wrap-around moisture to be
pulled in and around 18Z a line of showers and storms form along
the northern CWA. This line will move to the south- southeast
and as it does, additional bands of showers and storms look to
form, so the rain may come in waves tomorrow. The entire system
will be moving to the east and the northerly winds push the
storms to the south. Precipitation looks to begin tapering off
around 9Z Monday, but could linger into mid-day Monday.

Sunday will be cooler than today due to mostly cloudy skies and
a cold front moving through in the morning/mid-day, highs will
be in the 60s. Tonight will see the LLJ moving warm, moist air
into the region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but
the eastern CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will
be slightly cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern continues to be
forecast to be similar to this weekend where a cut-off low over the
Southwestern CONUS moves east and rejoins the main flow. The
apparent difference is that this one looks to be a little more
south which will lower the effect it has over the area. Still
forecasting temperatures to be in the 60`s and 70`s with some
shower/storm chances. Severe weather looks to be unlikely at this
time.

Friday and into the weekend remains fairly uncertain as guidance is
split between moving in another upper trough and keeping some of the
cut-off low near the area, or moving everything east and allowing
ridging to develop while the next trough begins to move into the
Northwest CONUS. Currently leaning towards the ridging solution with
warmer temperatures in the 80`s and lower chances for precipitation
simply because I haven`t seen too many trailing upper lows (though
we`ve had some recently). If the trailing low and/or another trough
moves through solutions are correct, than temperatures would be more
likely to remain in the 60`s and 70`s with more chances for
precipitation. Given the overall split/weak flow, large scale air
mass changes look to be unlikely which will keep moisture available
over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Sub-VFR conditions associated with episodic showers/storms
and/or low ceilings are anticipated late tonight and throughout
the day on Sunday. Light/variable winds will prevail overnight
and persist through mid-late Sunday afternoon.. as a weak low
pressure system in CO progresses eastward over western KS. Winds
will shift to the N or NNE at 15-20 knots near the end of the
TAF period (~00Z Monday).. as the aforementioned low pressure
system progresses eastward into central Kansas. Gusty/erratic
winds can be expected in vicinity of any showers/storms tonight
through Sunday evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BV