831
FXUS63 KGLD 151804
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1204 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%)
  continue today and tonight.

- Dry weather Thursday through the day Saturday with warming
  temperatures.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis is forecast to slowly
move through the area through the period. A blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF
850-500mb relative humidity forecasts suggest a mid level dry slot
will cover much of the area today with slightly better chances for
showers and thunderstorms across western Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties in Colorado tonight. Even with slightly better moisture
available from 850-700mb, there isnt much lift despite some weak
instability and modest low level lapse rates. All in all, we`ll have
20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms for various parts of
the forecast area today and tonight. The threat for severe
weather looks rather low. Its possible a storm or two could have
hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph but confidence in
that is rather low. If that were to happen, it would be during
the time of peak heating through about sunset. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low
temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.


Thursday-Thursday night...the above mentioned area of sufficient
moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the far western/southwestern
parts of the forecast area Wednesday will slide to the southeast
during the day, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms across
Greeley and Wichita counties with dry weather for the entire area
during the night. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper
70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging moves into the area ahead
of an upper level trough moving into the northern plains. The
associated 850mb thermal ridge moves over the area, supporting high
temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. There is a bit of moisture
in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area during the night and
could support 20% chances for showers/thunderstorms. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Main concern during this period will be chances for thunderstorms,
with a risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday.

Cold front moves through early Saturday morning with post
frontal upslope regime by Saturday afternoon. Scattered storms
will develop in eastern Colorado, but instability is very
limited and will probably only see a few isolated showers or
storms from the remnants Saturday night. By Sunday, will see
fairly decent low level moisture return which results in
moderate instability by the afternoon. Models show a surface
trough/dry line near the Kansas/Colorado border at 18z that
rapidly moves east in the afternoon. There is a weak wave moving
through the southwest flow aloft which will probably be enough
to initiate convection on the trough/dry line. Eastern areas
appear to be the favored area in the latest model runs for
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe with deep layer shear
of around 40 kts in addition to the instability. On Monday a
cold front enters the area and will be the focus for convection.
A stronger upper level shortwave will also add additional lift.
Moderate instability is forecast along/ahead of the front and
deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts, setting the stage
for another risk of severe storms with all modes possible given
those parameters and a sharp frontal boundary. May get a break
from the convection on Tuesday with a shortwave ridge moving in
and little to no instability currently forecast.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs
mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
are expected to decrease slightly this afternoon, with winds
becoming light and variable tonight. Mid-level clouds will be
possible this afternoon, with some upper level clouds in the
evening. There will be a chance of some showers and storms in
the vicinity of the terminals, however, confidence in locations
is low at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Wekesser