797
FXUS63 KGLD 152050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
  strong to marginally severe.

- Dry weather is expected for most areas Thursday through
  Saturday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Saturday evening through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

A weak cold front continues to move through the region today. Expect
slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low to
mid-70s.  Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening.  A few storms may become strong
to marginally severe.  The primary hazards with any storms would be
hail to the size of quarters and winds gusting as high as 55mph.
Showers and storms should taper off for most areas by midnight.

The upper ridge continues to move across the region through the day
Thursday.  Light winds from the north will shift to the
south/southeast in the afternoon.  Dry conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures are expected.  Highs are currently forecasted to
reach the mid to upper 70s.  A few 80s cannot be entirely ruled out.
 Lows will range from the mid-40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Little has changed from the previous forecast, still looking at
generally warmer temperatures and shots at showers and storms
Saturday through Tuesday.

The period begins with northerly flow as a heavily tilted ridge
erodes and moves out to the east, bringing zonal flow to the area by
Sunday. As the ridge moves out of the area, it could serve as enough
of a forcing mechanism to fire off some brief showers and storms
Saturday evening. PoPs are highest in the central and eastern CWA,
topping out around 20%.

Sunday afternoon and evening, a weak shortwave is showing up on
guidance. This will give us another chance at seeing some showers
and storms, mainly in the northeastern CWA where moisture will be
more available. PoPs are currently around 20-30% for Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Monday, is a bit more interesting; around the 18Z Monday to 12Z
Tuesday timeframe, a trough looks to work into the area and will
give us our best chance at showers and storms in the long-term. A
low pressure system in Canada is expected to extend a trough into
the Central High Plains, but timing and intensity are still a bit of
a question. The GFS is more aggressive than the GEFS mean, ECMWF, and
CMC-NH, but all three do show similar overall features. This will
also be our highest likelihood of severe weather in the long-term,
although this far out, hazards are pretty vague. These showers and
storms could linger through a good portion of Tuesday, too.

Behind this trough, another ridge builds in from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Behind that ridge is a strong low pressure
system that looks to impact the region near the end of next workweek.

Temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the period.
The days with rain will be in the mid 70s to low 80s and days
without rain will be in the 80s, potentially low 90s. Overnight
temperatures look to stay persistent, too. Lows will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
are expected to decrease slightly this afternoon, with winds
becoming light and variable tonight. Mid-level clouds will be
possible this afternoon, with some upper level clouds in the
evening. There will be a chance of some showers and storms in
the vicinity of the terminals, however, confidence in locations
is low at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Wekesser