919
FXUS63 KGLD 161539
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
939 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather with rising temperatures today through
  Saturday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible west of Highway
  27 Sunday afternoon.

- An unsettled weather pattern returns Saturday night through
  Wednesday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Today-tonight...tranquil weather is anticipated today with generally
light and variable winds, a sunny to mostly sunny sky and high
temperatures in the lower 70s to around 80. There could be some fair
weather cumulus or towering cumulus clouds mid to late afternoon
west of Highway 25 as some moisture in the 700-500mb layer moves in
from the west and northwest. Tonight, a clear to partly cloudy sky
is expected with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Friday-Friday night...shortwave upper ridging moves in during the
day, ahead of an approaching upper level trough and its associated
cold front overnight. High temperatures rise into the middle 80s to
around 90 with low temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow is from the west-southwest
which will allow a weather disturbance per 700-500mb relative
humidity to move into the area during the night. It could reach our
Colorado counties as early as late afternoon. The cold front moves
through during the day with north to northeast winds gusting up to
30 mph. High temperatures cool a bit with middle 70s to lower 80s
forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Southwest flow aloft will be the predominant upper feature
through the long term period. Shortwaves embedded in the flow
will bring occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially early in the period, when instability and deep layer
shear will be sufficient for a risk of severe storms. In
addition, Monday will potentially see a warm front in the area
which would focus convective development and provide a boundary
for potential tornadoes. For the latter half of the long term,
Tuesday and Wednesday, moisture and instability will be more
limited and severe potential will decrease.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday, near normal on Monday
north of the front and above normal south of the front, then
below normal temperatures follow for Tuesday which warm to near
normal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 938 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Mostly clear skies /VFR conditions/ will rule through the TAF
period at both terminals. Light and variable winds will prevail
today. Winds will shift to the S-SSW at 10-15 knots overnight..
veering to the SW-WSW at 15-20 knots late Friday morning into
Friday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent