-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
033
FXUS61 KALY 161044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
644 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers continue this morning mainly in portions of the
Hudson Valley and western New England with a coastal low situated
just off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts. Isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible through this afternoon mainly
in these areas and in the Southwest Adirondacks where a weak frontal
boundary remains nearly stationary. Dry weather returns Friday
before additional shower chances come Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 644 AM EDT...The coastal low has weakened back
to a 1000 mb core and with it, the axis of forcing has weakened
as well. Rain has become less steady and more showery in nature
still within southwest New England, Mid-Hudson Valley, and some
isolated showers in the Eastern Catskills. KENX radar shows
another couple small batches of steady rain approaching
Litchfield and Berkshire Counties from the east, but these, too,
appear to be weakening. The surface boundary remains draped
over the Southwest Adirondacks, but conditions remain dry in
this area. Made minor adjustments to temperatures, PoPs, and sky
cover to account for latest obs and trends, but otherwise the
forecast remains in good shape. Additional details in the
previous discussion below...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system currently situated just off the New Jersey
and Long Island coastlines has deepened slightly as of this
morning, now appearing with a 998 mb core. Isentropic lift
associated with the system has continued to support rain mainly
to our east, but east-northeast to east-southeast flow across
western New England has allowed the precipitation shield to
drift west such that steady rain has begun once again in
southern Litchfield County and some leading showers have
developed mainly in Berkshire County and the Mid-Hudson Valley.
Elsewhere, dry conditions remain in place where winds have
backed further to the north. A weak frontal boundary still
remains draped across the Southwest Adirondacks, but without the
influence of diurnal heating, no additional showers have
developed there overnight. In fact, while IR satellite imagery
shows a line of clouds right along the boundary, there have
actually been some breaks on either side of it courtesy of
subsidence from a high displaced overhead.

Throughout the day today, the coastal low will begin to slide
south and east further into the Atlantic, allowing its
associated showers to gradually taper off in western New England
and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Diurnal effects could support some
additional showers, isolated to scattered in nature, in the
Southwest Adirondacks and possibly the Uper-Hudson Valley as the
aforementioned boundary attempts to drift south. A stray shower
or two is possible along its slow track in the Mohawk Valley and
Capital Region, but this possibility is rather hit or miss with
the overall lack of forcing associated with this feature. So, it
will be a relatively dry day for most with clouds gradually
decreasing in coverage from northwest to southeast. Highs will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low to mid 60s
in the Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any stray showers from the influence of the exiting coastal low
and the weak wind shift/frontal boundary will dissipate quickly
after the loss of diurnal heating, yielding dry conditions
across the forecast area by tonight. Clouds, while continuing to
decrease in coverage, will likely stick around such that skies
will be partly cloudy courtesy of easterly flow about the
northern periphery of the still nearby coastal low. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As the coastal system continues to pull away Friday, weak
ridging glides into the region as high pressure to our south
pushes east. This, pairing with high pressure to our north, will
keep us dry Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Skies, though beginning as only partly cloudy, will begin to increase
in the afternoon, however, as an upper-level shortwave tracks
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Despite this, primarily dry
weather will persist, outside of a stray shower or two in the
Southwest Adirondacks, through the overnight with low
temperatures primarily in the upper 50s with some low 40s in
western New England where clouds will be slower to completely
fill in.

By Saturday morning, the aforementioned shortwave energy will
have tracked through the Great Lakes and continue along a
northeasterly track through New York. A fairly moisture-starved
disturbance, guidance now shows mere isolated showers mainly
north and west of Albany before mid-morning. Weak troughing will
remain across the region throughout the day Saturday with
another shortwave disturbance passing to our south. Some light
showers associated with this perturbation are possible in the
Eastern Catskills and Mid-Hudson Valley, but once again, these
look to be very light and scattered in nature. Any showers that
do cross into our area look to dissipate by Saturday
afternoon/evening with upper ridging building in overtop of the
southerly shortwave. Therefore, Saturday night will once again
see the return of dry conditions. Highs Saturday will be in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast has trended drier with above normal
temperatures for eastern NY and western New England into the mid
week based on the latest medium range deterministic and ensemble
guidance.  An Rex type block sets up with mid level ridging over NY
and New England on Sunday with a mid and upper level trough over the
the Mid Atlantic States and portions of the Southeast.  Sfc high
pressure builds in from the Canadian Maritimes. Partly to mostly
sunny conditions will allow for temps to warm to seasonal to
slightly above normal levels with mid and upper 70s in many of the
valley areas with 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. Some
radiational cooling with the ridging will allow lows to fall into the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

Monday into the mid week, the mid and upper level ridge folds in
from the west/southwest over region with above normal heights and
H850 temps.  Max temps trend above normal by close to 10 degrees on
both Monday and Tuesday.  High will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
in the lower elevations and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher
terrain.  The sfc anticyclone will be over or near New England with
lows in the 50s with some 40s over the mtns or in the sheltered
valleys.

A cold front and an upper level trough will approach from the west
on Wednesday. Some clouds will increase and a prefrontal sfc trough
may focus some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Temps
will still run above normal.  The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast May
23-29 is calling for near normal temps and slightly above normal
rainfall for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Conditions vary from LIFR to VFR at the TAF
sites this morning. KGFL had LIFR/IFR fog/low stratus form with
light winds and mostly clear skies.  We used to a TEMPO group for
LIFR/IFR fog until 09Z/THU.  We have northerly winds increase for
the fog to break up and VFR conditions returning prior to daybreak
there with cigs at 4 kft AGL.  Further south and east, expect VFR
conditions with cigs at KALB in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range to lower
MVFR with some spotty showers approaching around the coastal low
near Long Island. MVFR levels at KPOU/KPSF will persist with cigs
1.5-3.0 kft AGL with occasional showers developing.

The showers may increase prior to noon and we used PROB30 groups or
went prevailing at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  We may have to add in some IFR
stratus but we kept bases in the 1-2 kft AGL range.  We maintained a
VCSH group at KGFL with MVFR stratus.  The showers will taper in the
afternoon with cigs generally in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range until
close to 00Z/FRI where some low VFR cigs are possible.

The winds will increase from the north to northeast at 5-10 KT this
morning. The winds will generally be 8-12 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
The winds will decrease to 7 KT or less towards 23Z/THU from the
northeast/east.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula