-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
362
FXUS61 KALY 140546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning sun today will mix behind increasing afternoon
clouds with temperatures becoming warm and summer-like. A weak cold
front will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 90. Chances for showers
continue Tuesday night, Wednesday and even part of Thursday as an
upper level disturbance tracks to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1 AM EDT...An area of light showers along the leading
edge of our warm front and push of warm air advection is
exiting into southern VT tonight with just a few isolated
showers redeveloping in its wake over the southern Adirondacks.
Clouds behind this front are gradually diminishing as seen via
GOES16 IR imagery but a southwesterly flow regime persisting
behind the front will maintain a mild and somewhat humid air
mass the rest of the night. Southerly winds will also remain a
bit breezy overnight sustained around 5kts or so. Temperatures
will only drop into the low to mid 50s by early Tuesday morning
and with partial clearing, some patchy fog is not completely
ruled out in areas where winds weaken enough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Boundary layer flow turns to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper disturbance and associated cold front out of
the Great Lakes and Canada. Upstream satellite imagery shows
quite a bit of clearing and that zone of clearing, with some
areas of mid and high clouds will be over our region much of
the day Tuesday. So, with surface winds from the south,
boundary layer winds from the southwest and at least some
filtered sun should help temperatures to rise well into the 70s
to around 80. Then, a band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms develops ahead of the cold from central NY through
the western Mohawk Valley, NY/Canadian border through the
Adirondacks during the afternoon, that will gradually build east
and south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rain, as there will be some instability in place
and midlevel lapse rates not overly steep but enough to result
in enough instability for some locally enhanced updrafts in
stronger thunderstorms.

The front is expected to become nearly stationary across our
region, while southern stream upper energy tracks south of our
region Wednesday and south of Long Island Thursday. Onshore flow
strengthens over our region Wednesday with the development of
low pressure offshore Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a
widespread cloudiness across our region, and a region of
showers into areas south of the Capital Region. Some scattered
showers along the weakening front from the Capital Region and
points north is also possible but less coverage of showers.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to around 70.

Lingering showers Thursday as the upper system exits south and
east of Long Island with potential breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon as weak high pressure begins to build in. Highs
Thursday around 70 to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
More generally unsettled weather through the weekend into the
beginning of next week but quite a bit of spread in sources of
guidance/ensembles. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in
timing and track of upper impulses that cold bring considerable
cloud cover and some periods of scattered showers to our region.
There are some hints of some persistent narrow low level ridging
in our region with better chances for rain with southern stream
upper energy centered just south of our region, and northern
stream upper energy affecting mainly areas just north of our
region. It is much too early to have any confidence on timing
and track of systems, so indicating just a mostly cloudy sky
with chances for showers through much of the weekend with
possible breaks in the clouds and less coverage of showers by
Sunday and Monday.

Highs Friday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday in the 60s to near 70. Highs Sunday in the 70s with
around 70 higher terrain. Highs Monday in the 70s with near 80
mid Hudson Valley and around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this morning with variable cloud cover across eastern New York
and western New England. Such conditions are anticipated to
remain steady throughout much of the 06z TAF period despite the
expectation of a gradual increase in cloud cover in response to
a nearing low pressure system and associate cold front.
However, with plenty of low- level dry air as shown on latest
forecast soundings, developing ceilings will remain at heights
well within VFR thresholds.

The only way that VFR conditions will be disturbed throughout
this 06z cycle is in the event a shower or thunderstorm cross
one of the terminals later this evening. Latest models show
convection to be highly scattered in nature, with the most
consistent signal for a few showers or thunderstorms to impact
the KGFL terminal. Therefore, included a PROB30 group for a
period of light showers at KGFL later in the period. However,
until confidence grows in the spatial coverage and likelihood of
thunderstorms, left thunder out of the TAFs. Additionally, with
such a scattered nature to any precipitation, left any showers
out of the other terminals until, once again, confidence
increases in whether or not they could be impacted. It is also
possible, based on latest guidance, that showers could remain
outside of the duration of this cycle. Will provide further
details in later updates.

Winds throughout the 06z period will prevail out of a south to
southwest direction at sustained speeds of 6-12 kt. A few gusts
at KALB and KPSF are likely at speeds of 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant