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177
FXUS61 KALY 142340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening, especially north of
Interstate 90. Chances for showers continue tonight and
Wednesday before turning more scattered for Thursday as an upper
level disturbance tracks to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 740 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is trying to
approach from the northwest. This front will be approaching the
area for tonight, but looks to generally remains northwest of
the area through the overnight. Meanwhile, another area of low
pressure is organizing off the mid Atlantic coast as well.

Some scattered and mainly disorganized clusters of showers and
t-storms are ongoing across the Adirondacks. Some of the
activity has also been spreading into parts of the Mohawk
Valley, Sacandaga Area and Saratoga Region too. Most of the
activity is rather brief and lightning has been fairly
infrequent. Over the next few hours, some additional showers and
isolated t-storms are possible, mainly for areas north of the
Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. A quick downpour is expected,
but brief gusty winds and small hail can`t be totally ruled out.
Activity should generally weaken with the loss of daytime
heating

There are a few showers near the eastern Catskills and mid
Hudson Valley to NW CT, as the northern periphery of southern
stream moisture well ahead of upper energy in the midwest and
TN/OH Valley begins to approach. Moisture from the southern
stream system will expand north and combine with the weakening
cold front, which will result in clouds and better coverage of
showers toward daybreak. CAMs suggest a batch of showers will
spread south to north across much of the area for the late night hours.
Lows tonight in the 50s to near 60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weak front will wash out over us while southern stream upper
energy and associated moisture and low level forcing tracks
south of Long Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. The
upper energy will then build southeast and farther offshore the
eastern U.S. Thursday. As the system tracks south of Long
Island Wednesday and Wednesday night, the northern shield of
showers will track through much of the region but mainly along
and south of I-90. Just scattered showers north of I-90. Highs
Wednesday in the 60s with near 70 Hudson Valley from the Capital
Region southward and around 60 southern Adirondacks.

The upper energy tracks well offshore Thursday but boundary
layer flow from the east increases over our region and some
moisture advection and low level convergence should support more
clouds than sun and isolated to scattered showers. Slightly
better coverage of showers in northern areas, near the old
frontal boundary, and in southern areas, closest to the northern
periphery of the offshore system. Highs Thursday in the 60s to
around 70.

Flat upper ridging builds into our region Thursday night into
Friday with weak northern stream upper energy beginning to
approach from the Great Lakes through the day Friday. Mainly
dry weather through Friday due to the flat upper ridging with
highs in the 70s with around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty next weekend through the beginning of next
week. Some guidance has more upper impulses and mainly unsettled
weather, while other guidance shows flat upper ridging to zonal
upper flow, with drier weather. Some small upper impulses
within the flat upper ridging and zonal upper flow could bring
chances for showers at some point during the period.

So, until there is better agreement in the long term
guidance/ensembles, suggesting more clouds than sun and chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday
with the best coverage of clouds and showers Saturday and Sunday
and potential breaks in the clouds Sunday and Monday.

Highs Saturday and Sunday in the 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday
around 70 to mid 70s with some upper 60s southern Adirondacks.
Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 to lower
70s in higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Flying conditions are currently VFR with sct-bkn cigs around
9-12 kft and some more high clouds around as well. Some
scattered showers across northern areas may impact KGFL over the
next few hours with some brief downpours and quick MVFR
conditions for visibility. Otherwise, it will remain VFR over
the next few hours. Southerly winds have been gusty, with
sustained winds 10 to 15 kts and some higher gusts. These will
gradually decrease over the next few hours.

By later tonight, a batch of showers will be spreading south to
north across the area for the late night hours and into the
first part of Wednesday. This will allow for MVFR conditions for
both visibility and ceilings. Widespread IFR conditions aren`t
expected at this time, but will continue to monitor model and
upstream trends. South to southeast winds will be 5 to 10 kts
for the late night hours.

MVFR conditions will continue for a good part of the day on
Wednesday. Once showers end, ceilings will gradually improve
through the day, with a return for VFR conditions for all sites
by the afternoon hours. Some additional spotty showers can`t be
ruled out for later in the day as well, so brief MVFR conditions
are still possible from time to time.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis