-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
299
FXUS61 KALY 150553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
153 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening, especially north of
Interstate 90. Chances for showers continue tonight and
Wednesday before turning more scattered for Thursday as an upper
level disturbance tracks to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Light showers have begun to spread into the Eastern
Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley and Schoharie Valley this morning
as heights fall ahead of an advancing surface low to the south
and west and a developing coastal low to the south. IR satellite
imagery continues to show an upper-level disturbance well to our
south and west.

With instability having decreased as a result of the loss of
daytime heating, removed chances for thunder for the remainder
of the overnight period. Showers will generally continue to
track north and east slowly throughout the morning, bringing
light accumulations across much of the region. Current
temperatures primarily range from the mid 50s to low 60s with
the continued expectation for lows to only drop to the lower 50s
to upper 50s and possibly some pockets near 60.

Outside of minor adjustments to temperatures, PoPs and sky
cover, the forecast remains on track...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [1012 PM EDT]...
As of 1012 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is trying to
approach from the northwest. This front will be approaching the
area for tonight, but looks to generally remains northwest of
the area through the overnight. Meanwhile, another area of low
pressure is organizing off the mid Atlantic coast as well.

Showers and embedded brief thunderstorms had been ongoing over
the Adirondacks this evening, but coverage has been starting to
decrease now with the loss of daytime heating. A few brief
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder is still possible over
the Adirondacks and Lake George area over the next hour or two,
but any precip looks fairly brief and no more hail or gusty
winds are anticipated.

IR satellite imagery shows skies are now fairly cloudy across a
good part of the area. Most of these clouds are mid and high
level. In addition, south to southeast winds continue to be
gusty at times. With the breeze and clouds, radiational fog
shouldn`t be an issue for the overnight hours.

There are a few showers near the eastern Catskills and mid
Hudson Valley to NW CT, as the northern periphery of southern
stream moisture well ahead of upper energy in the midwest and
TN/OH Valley begins to approach. Moisture from the southern
stream system will expand north and combine with the weakening
cold front, which will result in clouds and better coverage of
showers toward daybreak. CAMs suggest a batch of showers will
spread south to north across much of the area for the late night hours.
Lows tonight in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weak front will wash out over us while southern stream upper
energy and associated moisture and low level forcing tracks
south of Long Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. The
upper energy will then build southeast and farther offshore the
eastern U.S. Thursday. As the system tracks south of Long
Island Wednesday and Wednesday night, the northern shield of
showers will track through much of the region but mainly along
and south of I-90. Just scattered showers north of I-90. Highs
Wednesday in the 60s with near 70 Hudson Valley from the Capital
Region southward and around 60 southern Adirondacks.

The upper energy tracks well offshore Thursday but boundary
layer flow from the east increases over our region and some
moisture advection and low level convergence should support more
clouds than sun and isolated to scattered showers. Slightly
better coverage of showers in northern areas, near the old
frontal boundary, and in southern areas, closest to the northern
periphery of the offshore system. Highs Thursday in the 60s to
around 70.

Flat upper ridging builds into our region Thursday night into
Friday with weak northern stream upper energy beginning to
approach from the Great Lakes through the day Friday. Mainly
dry weather through Friday due to the flat upper ridging with
highs in the 70s with around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty next weekend through the beginning of next
week. Some guidance has more upper impulses and mainly unsettled
weather, while other guidance shows flat upper ridging to zonal
upper flow, with drier weather. Some small upper impulses
within the flat upper ridging and zonal upper flow could bring
chances for showers at some point during the period.

So, until there is better agreement in the long term
guidance/ensembles, suggesting more clouds than sun and chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday
with the best coverage of clouds and showers Saturday and Sunday
and potential breaks in the clouds Sunday and Monday.

Highs Saturday and Sunday in the 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday
around 70 to mid 70s with some upper 60s southern Adirondacks.
Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 to lower
70s in higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front becoming stationary west of the region and a low
pressure system moving up the mid Atlantic Coast will bring periods
of light rain or showers this morning with a brief lull in the
afternoon before some scattered showers popping up in the late
afternoon or some patchy drizzle moving back into the TAF sites
tonight.

VFR conditions will fall into the MVFR range from south to north
from KPOU/KPSF first between 06Z-09Z/WED to KALB/KGFL 09Z-12Z/WED
with some light rain.  Vsbys will be MVFR with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL.
A period of IFR cigs is possible 12Z-19Z/WED for KALB/KPSF southward
to KPOU with confidence low for KGFL, though a period of IFR cigs
may be added later.

Some improvement to MVFR/low VFR conditions is possible in the early
to mid pm with cigs 2-3.5 kft AGL, but some scattered showers may
develop and PROB30 groups were used to bring MVFR conditions back.
KPOU may remain in the deeper moisture as well as KPSF for MVFR cigs
continuing past 00Z/THU.  KALB/KGFL may be high MVFR or low VFR in
the 3-3.5 kft AGL range.

The winds will be south to southeast at 4-9 KT this morning and may
become variable at less than 4 KT at KPOU/KPSF.  The winds will be
mainly south/southeast at less than 10 KT during the afternoon
before becoming northeast/north at 7 KT or less in the late
afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Wasula