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346
FXUS61 KALY 121930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain
showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather
returns early this week with continued chances for some showers
and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and
seasonable weather may return for late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low now
positioned across eastern New England as the surface low over
central Pennsylvania dissipates. Continued upper-level
troughing overhead will result in some isolated to scattered
showers through the rest of the afternoon hours. Activity will
be most favored across far northern and eastern areas with some
isolated activity near the Hudson Valley.

Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure
strengthening to our east will bring an end to showers this
evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide
some viewing conditions for tonight`s aurora. Visit the Space
Weather Prediction Center website for more information. Some
patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys
where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back
into the upper 30s to mid-40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high
pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level
ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over
the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface
warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result
in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon
and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain
favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south.
Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of
thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s.

The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward
the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level
heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity
to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief
period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection
regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s
to mid-50s.

A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected
to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday
afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our
region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may
turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s
across the higher elevations.

The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region
on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just
ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid-
Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through
Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should
depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and
Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure
return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of
the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather
pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to
unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during
this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs
most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s
with lows in the 40s and 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in place this
afternoon as an upper level low tracks east across the region.
Scattered showers will be around, with the best chances for a
few rounds of -SHRA at KGFL/KPSF where TEMPO has been included.
Will mention VCSH at KALB. Any -SHRA should stay north of KPOU.

As the upper low moves into New England this evening, conditions
are expected to improve to VFR. BKN-OVC cigs will also likely
to scour out to FEW-SCT coverage through the evening hours. With
not much drying overnight and fairly moist ground conditions,
there is a threat of fog with MVFR/IFR possible. Will include
mention of IFR at most favored sites KGFL/KPSF with MVFR for now
at KALB/KPOU. Will continue to monitor trends.

Winds will be variable around 6 kt or less through the rest of
the day, becoming near calm tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...JPV