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711
FXUS61 KALY 161430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1030 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers continue this morning mainly in portions of the
Hudson Valley and western New England with a coastal low situated
just off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts. Isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible through this afternoon mainly
in these areas and in the Southwest Adirondacks where a weak frontal
boundary remains nearly stationary. Dry weather returns Friday
before additional shower chances come Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1030 AM EDT, areas of rain continue to pivot
into the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills, as well as adjacent
portions of eastern New York including the Mid-Hudson Valley and
Taconics as a vertically-stacked low pressure system meanders
off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts. Occasionally gusty
northeast winds will continue across these same areas into this
evening as the low slowly tracks away into the North Atlantic.
Elsewhere, mostly cloudy skies persist outside of the western
Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks, where rising
heights aloft at the leading nose of large-scale ridging and
subsidence has allowed for more clearing. A decaying stationary
boundary draped across much of northwestern New York state will
serve as a focus for additional rain shower development through
the afternoon, followed by a drying trend across the region as
ridging continues to build. As such, forecast remains on track;
see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0645 AM EDT]...A low pressure system
currently situated just off the New Jersey and Long Island
coastlines has deepened slightly as of this morning, now
appearing with a 998 mb core. Isentropic lift associated with
the system has continued to support rain mainly to our east, but
east-northeast to east-southeast flow across western New
England has allowed the precipitation shield to drift west such
that steady rain has begun once again in southern Litchfield
County and some leading showers have developed mainly in
Berkshire County and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, dry
conditions remain in place where winds have backed further to
the north. A weak frontal boundary still remains draped across
the Southwest Adirondacks, but without the influence of diurnal
heating, no additional showers have developed there overnight.
In fact, while IR satellite imagery shows a line of clouds right
along the boundary, there have actually been some breaks on
either side of it courtesy of subsidence from a high displaced
overhead.

Throughout the day today, the coastal low will begin to slide
south and east further into the Atlantic, allowing its
associated showers to gradually taper off in western New England
and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Diurnal effects could support some
additional showers, isolated to scattered in nature, in the
southwestern Adirondacks and possibly the Upper Hudson Valley
as the aforementioned boundary attempts to drift south. A stray
shower or two is possible along its slow track in the Mohawk
Valley and Capital Region, but this possibility is rather hit or
miss with the overall lack of forcing associated with this
feature. So, it will be a relatively dry day for most with
clouds gradually decreasing in coverage from northwest to
southeast. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with
pockets of low to mid 60s in the Eastern Catskills, Southern
Greens, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Any stray showers from the influence of the exiting coastal low
and the weak wind shift/frontal boundary will dissipate quickly
after the loss of diurnal heating, yielding dry conditions
across the forecast area by tonight. Clouds, while continuing to
decrease in coverage, will likely stick around such that skies
will be partly cloudy courtesy of easterly flow about the
northern periphery of the still nearby coastal low. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As the coastal system continues to pull away Friday, weak
ridging glides into the region as high pressure to our south
pushes east. This, pairing with high pressure to our north, will
keep us dry Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Skies, though beginning as only partly cloudy, will begin to increase
in the afternoon, however, as an upper-level shortwave tracks
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Despite this, primarily dry
weather will persist, outside of a stray shower or two in the
Southwest Adirondacks, through the overnight with low temperatures
primarily in the upper 50s with some low 40s in western New
England where clouds will be slower to completely fill in.

By Saturday morning, the aforementioned shortwave energy will
have tracked through the Great Lakes and continue along a
northeasterly track through New York. A fairly moisture-starved
disturbance, guidance now shows mere isolated showers mainly
north and west of Albany before mid-morning. Weak troughing will
remain across the region throughout the day Saturday with
another shortwave disturbance passing to our south. Some light
showers associated with this perturbation are possible in the
Eastern Catskills and Mid-Hudson Valley, but once again, these
look to be very light and scattered in nature. Any showers that
do cross into our area look to dissipate by Saturday
afternoon/evening with upper ridging building in overtop of the
southerly shortwave. Therefore, Saturday night will once again
see the return of dry conditions. Highs Saturday will be in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper
40s to low 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The extended forecast has trended drier with above normal
temperatures for eastern NY and western New England into the mid
week based on the latest medium range deterministic and ensemble
guidance. A Rex type block sets up with mid level ridging over
NY and New England on Sunday with a mid and upper level trough
over the the Mid Atlantic States and portions of the Southeast.
Sfc high pressure builds in from the Canadian Maritimes. Partly
to mostly sunny conditions will allow for temps to warm to
seasonal to slightly above normal levels with mid and upper 70s
in many of the valley areas with 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain. Some radiational cooling with the ridging will
allow lows to fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Monday into the mid week, the mid and upper level ridge folds in
from the west/southwest over region with above normal heights and
H850 temps.  Max temps trend above normal by close to 10 degrees on
both Monday and Tuesday. High will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s in the lower elevations and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
higher terrain. The sfc anticyclone will be over or near New
England with lows in the 50s with some 40s over the mtns or in
the sheltered valleys.

A cold front and an upper level trough will approach from the west
on Wednesday. Some clouds will increase and a prefrontal sfc trough
may focus some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps
will still run above normal. The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast
May 23-29 is calling for near normal temps and slightly above
normal rainfall for eastern NY and western New England.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12z Friday...Conditions vary from MVFR to VFR at the TAF
sites this morning. KGFL/KALB have returned to VFR after some low
stratus. MVFR cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL continue at KPOU/KPSF with
some light rain/showers. Low MVFR conditions are possible and
also brief IFR levels at KPSF. Expect MVFR cigs to move into
KALB/KGFL in the late morning/early pm and VCSH groups were
used.

The showers will taper in the afternoon with cigs generally in the
1.5-3.0 kft AGL range until close to 21Z/THU to 00Z/FRI, where some
low VFR cigs are possible. The skies will gradually clear tonight
with mid and high clouds around.

The winds will generally be 8-12 KT in the late morning into the
afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The winds
will decrease to 7 KT or less towards 23Z/THU from the
northeast/east. The winds will be light to calm shortly before
or just after midnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula