-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
192
FXUS61 KALY 151330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
930 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers expected to persist throughout the
day as a weak boundary remains off to our north and west and low
pressure approaches from the south. Showers gradually become more
scattered in nature by Thursday before dry weather returns Friday.
Additional chances for showers comes this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 0930 AM EDT, scattered showers continue to
affect the region, tracking generally south to north, as a
vertically-stacked coastal low drifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast
and a surface cold front slowly approaching from the northwest
washes out and largely stalls. No updates to the forecast were
needed as shower coverage decreases through this afternoon while
temperatures remain stuck in the mid 50s to mid 50s across the
region; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0635 AM EDT]...Light showers have spread into
the region from southwest to northeast this morning as a
developing surface low takes shape along the NC/VA border. A
weak cold front remains displaced just to our north and west
with its parent low settling just into the northeast corner of
Maine. IR imagery shows a fairly expansive, upper-level
disturbance painted across portions of the Midwest, Mississippi
Valley, and sliding into the Tennessee Valley. Southerly flow
ahead of the leading edge of this feature has allowed for a
continuous influx of moisture into the region, providing
requisite fuel to develop and sustain showers ahead of the
approaching low.

Throughout the day today, the aforementioned low will gradually
shift eastward as a broad area of low pressure currently
situated in the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tracks east
with the upper-level trough. Light showers will continue to
push through the region from south to north thanks to warm air
advection ahead of the north-northeast tracking low. With
limited instability across the forecast area, limited convection
is expected. However, a few rumbles of thunder are possible
mainly north of Albany. With ample cloud cover today, highs will
be in the 60s throughout the region with pockets of upper 50s
at higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the coastal low settles off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, flow
gradually veers to the northeast, cutting off low-level moisture
transport and allowing showers to become more scattered in
nature. In fact, by early Thursday morning, showers will likely
have subsided for areas within and north of the Capital
District as the better forcing shifts east. The only areas that
could see additional showers throughout the morning Thursday
are portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest Connecticut and
perhaps even southern Berkshire County where some wrap around
precipitation is possible. Low temperatures will be primarily
in the low to mid 50s with pockets of 40s at higher elevations.

Throughout the day Thursday, some additional scattered showers
are possible throughout eastern New York and western New England
as the coastal low retrogrades a bit back towards the New Jersey
coastline. The higher likelihood of more widespread showers
remains in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England, but
some isolated to scattered showers are possible within and north
of the Capital District. Highs Thursday will rise into the upper
60s to low 70s with pockets of low to mid 60s above 1000 ft.

As the coastal low drifts south Thursday night, precipitation
will gradually taper off completely, giving way to building
heights with the advance of a modest trough and weak surface
high. With these fair-weather features in place, Friday will
feature dry conditions with highs in the 70s. However, with
another disturbance swiftly approaching the region for the
weekend and mid-level moisture remaining elevated, expect skies
to be partly to mostly cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The extended forecast period begins with a cold front approaching
the region Fri night and weakening with increasing clouds and the
best chance for isolated to scattered showers along and west of the
Hudson River Valley and Lake George. Lows will generally be in
the 50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain.

The upcoming weekend will depend on the track of the mid and upper
level low over the Midwest and the TN Valley. The latest medium
range guidance and some of the ensembles have trended drier to
open the weekend. A trough of low pressure will have an inverted
sfc trough, so we kept a low chance for scattered showers Sat
pm into the early evening. It will be mostly cloudy with near
normal temps in the 60s to around 70F for highs and lows in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. The mid and upper level trough moves
towards the East Coast with a coastal wave near the mid Atlantic
States on Sunday. Some moisture may advect northward for a
chance of showers south of the Capital Region with a slight
chance north and east. If downstream ridging builds in, then
this day may be drier north of the I-90 corridor. Temps will be
similar to Saturday.

Sunday night into Tuesday, H500 ridging may fold in over NY and
New England for a brief dry trend of weather late Sunday night
through Monday. A sfc anticyclone will build in from the Ohio
Valley. Max temps rise slightly above normal. A more progressive
short-wave and a cold front may bring scattered showers and
some thunderstorms late Monday Night into Tuesday. Timing issues
continue in the medium range and ensembles into the middle of
next week. Temps may rise above normal around 5 degrees with
upper 70s in the lower elevation to close the extended period.
The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast May 22-28 is for near normal
temps and slightly above normal rainfall for eastern NY and
western New England.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front west of the region and a low pressure system
moving up the mid Atlantic Coast will bring periods of rain this
morning with a brief lull in the afternoon before some scattered
showers popping up in the late afternoon or some patchy drizzle
moving back into the TAF sites tonight. Some lower stratus with
the patchy drizzle will likely develop overnight.

MVFR/low VFR conditions continue this morning in the rain from KALB-
KPSF southward to KPOU. Some lapses to IFR vsbys and cigs have
occurred at KALB/KPOU and a lower stratus deck with likely
develop prior to noon. KGFL has low MVFR cigs and will see rain
move in prior to 12Z. A period of IFR cigs is possible
12Z-18Z/WED for KALB/KPSF/KALB/KPOU with intermittent increases
to MVFR levels in the 1.0-2.5 kft AGL range.

Some improvement to high MVFR/low VFR conditions is possible in the
early to mid pm with cigs 2-3.5 kft AGL, but some scattered showers
may develop and TEMPO/PROB30 groups were used to bring solid MVFR
conditions back. KPOU may remain in the deeper moisture as well as
KPSF for MVFR cigs continuing past 00Z/THU. Cigs may even lower to
IFR levels. KALB/KGFL may be high MVFR or low VFR in the 3-3.5
kft AGL range.

The winds will be south or southeast at 4-8 KT this morning into the
early afternoon. The winds will become east/northeast to north at 7
KT or less in the late afternoon through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula