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599
FXUS61 KALY 131952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Chances for showers into this evening before we trend drier
overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures become even warmer tomorrow
ahead of a weak cold front and upper level disturbance which
will lead to more widespread showers and potentially a few
storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Some sprinkles and showers in our region this evening.
Additional showers in western NY associated with stronger
boundary layer warm advection will tend to track through
northern areas later this evening into the early morning hours
before some partial clearing before daybreak in many areas.

Marginal instability across the region suggests chances for
thunderstorms very limited and not including in the forecast.
There will be some increasing boundary layer winds and low level
convergence that could support an isolated thunderstorm in the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks but will wait for
near term trends to add thunder if necessary.

Lows tonight in the 50s with around 50 southern Adirondacks. It
could be a degree or two cooler depending on what areas may see
better clearing before daybreak.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Boundary layer flow turns to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper disturbance and associated cold front out of
the Great Lakes and Canada. Upstream satellite imagery shows
quite a bit of clearing and that zone of clearing, with some
areas of mid and high clouds will be over our region much of
the day Tuesday. So, with surface winds from the south,
boundary layer winds from the southwest and at least some
filtered sun should help temperatures to rise well into the 70s
to around 80. Then, a band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms develops ahead of the cold from central NY through
the western Mohawk Valley, NY/Canadian border through the
Adirondacks during the afternoon, that will gradually build east
and south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rain, as there will be some instability in place
and midlevel lapse rates not overly steep but enough to result
in enough instability for some locally enhanced updrafts in
stronger thunderstorms.

The front is expected to become nearly stationary across our
region, while southern stream upper energy tracks south of our
region Wednesday and south of Long Island Thursday. Onshore flow
strengthens over our region Wednesday with the development of
low pressure offshore Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a
widespread cloudiness across our region, and a region of
showers into areas south of the Capital Region. Some scattered
showers along the weakening front from the Capital Region and
points north is also possible but less coverage of showers.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to around 70.

Lingering showers Thursday as the upper system exits south and
east of Long Island with potential breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon as weak high pressure begins to build in. Highs
Thursday around 70 to mid 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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More generally unsettled weather through the weekend into the
beginning of next week but quite a bit of spread in sources of
guidance/ensembles. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in
timing and track of upper impulses that cold bring considerable
cloud cover and some periods of scattered showers to our region.
There are some hints of some persistent narrow low level ridging
in our region with better chances for rain with southern stream
upper energy centered just south of our region, and northern
stream upper energy affecting mainly areas just north of our
region. It is much too early to have any confidence on timing
and track of systems, so indicating just a mostly cloudy sky
with chances for showers through much of the weekend with
possible breaks in the clouds and less coverage of showers by
Sunday and Monday.

Highs Friday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday in the 60s to near 70. Highs Sunday in the 70s with
around 70 higher terrain. Highs Monday in the 70s with near 80
mid Hudson Valley and around 70 southern Adirondacks.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18z/Tue...VFR conditions are in place this afternoon at
all sites and should remain VFR for much of the upcoming TAF
period. A weakening area of rain will approach the Hudson sites,
primarily KALB/KGFL, within the next couple of hours with no
restrictions to vsbys expected. A brief break in precipitation
is expected later this afternoon into this evening before
another area of scattered showers pushes through between
00z-06z/Tue. These showers will once again be located mainly
over KALB/KGFL and possibly KPSF but likely stay north of KPOU.
Some brief MVFR vsbys may be possible in any heavier showers;
otherwise, VFR conditions will likely continue. Dry weather
returns after 06z/Tue with a trend toward a partly to mostly
clear sky for the rest of the TAF period. There is some
indication lower level stratus may develop at some sites
overnight, but due to low confidence, have opted to keep cigs
VFR at this time.

Wind will be mainly south to southwesterly through the TAF
period at 5-10 kt. A few higher gusts are possible at KALB
around or shortly after 12z/Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun